Enough about me...
I started Cheekpieces as a central point for friends, family and colleagues to access my tips without me having to reply individually but it rapidly evolved into a private members club. I’ve had to change to a subscription service as I am struggling to get any reasonable bets on with traditional bookmakers. In recent years the exchanges have no liquidity until the markets are well-established and I am on a premium commission rate which has further eroded my margin.
My background is as an accountant and that has meant I’ve have developed an analytical approach to betting. I hate losing money and if I thought I would lose in the mid to long term I would stop betting tomorrow. Of course I have losing runs the same as everyone else but over a sustained period, I know from past experience that I will come out on top.
I keep precise records of all my betting to every penny staked, this is important to ensure that your profit can be evidenced. In the early days I was convinced I was making a profit but the belief wasn’t backed up in cash. I soon discovered that my returns were being reduced by too many “mug bets” I have a separate bank account for my betting “tank” which helps to back-up my records with ‘cashflow’ control.
I developed my methodical approach having spent many years recording ‘paper profit’ and reading numerous books by experienced punters (including Tom Segal, Dave Nevison, Clive Holt, Steve Palmer, Caen Berry). I’m always happy to share advice and to learn new ideas and approaches. You have to be able to change and adapt. My racing life has seen many changes: all weather racing, introduction of exchanges, abolition of ‘betting tax’, each-way rules…to name just a few.
Having worked for one of the leading betting exchange companies for a while which was an education in itself on how not to lose too much! I’m now in a position to share my knowledge to help fellow punters and to receive feedback to help myself.
I read somewhere that the strike-rate of favourites is around one in three. If you are betting to level a stake and have a strike rate of 33% you need an average price of winners to be 2/1 just to break even. I have no statistics on the average price of favourites and I have no intention of finding out but I doubt it is above 2/1. I tend to have a lower strike rate – typically over 24% winners – but with averages prices in excess of 9/2.
Strike rate is inevitably related to prices, backing horses that are odds-on is likely to provide a strike rate of at least 50% (not enough for level stakes profit). As I’m operating outside the favourites range I expect a lower strike rate, longer losing runs but a better return on investment (ROI).
The backup team…
I have a network of respected professional and we exchange information on a daily basis. With more racing than ever I have found this “shared knowledge pool” to be invaluable and mutually beneficial as it’s impossible for one individual to cover everything in such a dynamic business.
This arrangement allows us to advise on prices, updates and, just as importantly, flagging-up any mis-judgement I might have made. For example, “You’re intending to tip horse X…I have been advised that horse Y from another yard is considered to be on a decent mark and is strongly expected to win”. This type of insight and advice helps to prevent mistakes that I might pass on to members and is a vital part of the benefits of membership.
Profit & Loss month-by-month 2020
“The importance of understanding the reality of “losing runs” is one of the reasons why such detailed records of every selection are kept on the website. If you glance through each of the years, you will see lots of such losing sequences, yet the column has remained profitable.
This is an important lesson for newcomers to punting to learn – winning punters don’t win all the time. Indeed, in many years the profit has largely stemmed from around two or three golden months – most serious punters will tell you this is by no means unusual.
The detailed records also mean that readers can be assured that each selection has been included in the results, with any Rule 4 deductions made. Too many tipping services either don’t provide any records, or just quote a plus or minus figure with no evidence to back it up.” Hugh Taylor, AtTheRaces
January: -5.4 points loss at advised prices; -7.9 points at BSP
February: +12.4 points profit at advised prices; +8.0 at BSP
March: +22.9 points profit at advised prices; +17.1 at BSP
June: +7.9 points profit at advised prices; +7.3 at BSP
July: –23.8 points loss at advised prices; –24.5 at BSP
August: -16.2 points loss at advised prices; -12.1 at BSP
September: +0.4 points profit at advised prices; +6.3 at BSP
October: +13.2 points profit at advised prices; +15.5 at BSP
November: +47.4 points profit at advised prices; +43.2 at BSP
December: +20.0 points profit at advised prices; +24.2 at BSP
Total for 2020: +78.8 points profit to advised prices; +77.1 at BSP
A spreadsheet listing every advised bet month-by-month is available on request.