Weighed In - Previous Results

Thursday 23rd September

MRS FITZHERBERT improved significantly when dropped back to a mile after two lesser efforts at middle-distances. She won last time out on handicap debut at Lingfield in a 0-95 heat. The form of that has been boosted and I think a 4lbs rise is lenient. She is effectively dropping in grade here. Not normally an each-way price, but she does have the outside draw to overcome, so I will play safe – ½ point each-way @ 13/2″  WON 11/2

Tuesday 21st September

The two-year-olds in the novice race  are tackling ten furlongs for the first time and FREEDOM CHARTER deserves to be favourite based on a good third at the track on debut, the form of that race is looking strong. That was over seven furlongs and I’m not convinced his pedigree suggests he wants this trip as a juvenile. On the other hand, SEA KING has a pedigree that oozes stamina. The colt stepped up on debut to finish third behind Westover and Bullet Proof, and was then not disgraced when fifth in a class 2 novice at Goodwood. As a son of Sea The Stars from a dam who won over 1m 6f, he should be suited by this longer trip – 1 point win @ 9/4 (generally)”  WON 10/11

Saturday 18th September

…it is worth taking a chance on CHILLSEA on her first start for Tom Ward. On her last start for Richard Fahey, she was runner-up at Beverley, beaten ½ length but would have finished closer with a clear run. She is switching back to the AW but her best RPR as a 2-y-o when fourth over an inadequate 5f. She was only a length behind the runner-up, who went on to complete a hat-trick. This looks a weak renewal and I suspect that CHILLSEA will only have to run to her previous level to win – 1 point win @ 6/1″   WON 6/1

Friday 17th September

Connections of NEENEE’S CHOICE must be delighted that their gelding only went up 4lbs for a win at Salisbury as the runner-up won next time out. NEENEE’S CHOICE has scope for further improvement at middle-distance trips and can go in again – 1 point win”  WON 13/8

Thursday 16th September

INVINCIBLY has his second start since having a wind op in June. His return to the track was an encouraging effort over 7f in a 0-85 at Haydock, the third was just touched off in a better race at Kempton. INVINCIBLY is on the same mark as when second at Redcar in April, beaten by a subsequent winner – ½ point win”  WON 12/1

HEATH RISE has stamina for two miles plus and needed every inch of the 1½m to get up on the line at Kempton last time out. He has a 4lbs rise for that win but the fourth has won since and the longer trip is expected to produce further improvement. HEATH RISE was only beaten a neck by SUNS UP GUNS UP at Windsor and re-opposes on more favourable terms – 1 point win”  WON 2/1

Wednesday 15th September

Highlight of Wednesday’s racing is the Sandown card that features the listed Fortune Stakes. That looks a decent heat with ten runners separated by 10lbs on official ratings. MOSTAHDAF has a bit to find on his mark of 108, but he has potential to rate much higher than that mark. The Frankel colt won the Heron Stakes over CD before being thrown in the deep end taking his chance in the St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He clearly wasn’t up to that task but would have finished closer had he not been almost ‘put over the rail’ by Naamoos. MOSTAHDAF should appreciate the significant drop in grade as well as easier ground, and he could improve past SIR BUSKER – 1 point win @ 11/4 R4″   WON 7/4

Tuesday 14th September

My best bet on the card is in the highlight evening, the seven-furlong handicap. MOTORIUS won impressively at Kempton last time out. That was his first attempt at the trip and prior to that he was beaten two lengths at Leicester in a race where the winner has won twice since; and the runner-up has also won. MOTORIUS must improve again, having gone up 8lbs for his win, but has potentially for further progress and looks worth staying with – 1 point win @ 15/8″   WON 6/4

Friday 10th September

The sprint handicap will have a maximum of seven runners, but there is still a betting opportunity with SENECA CHIEF. The son of Invincible Spirit seems to enjoy his visits to the Esher track as he has a good record at the course. His current BHA mark of 75 is 3lbs below his last winning mark, but he ran well from 1lb higher at Newmarket last time out. He ran poorly on good-to-soft ground over CD last year and has since been scratched when due to run on “soft”. He requires a sound surface, so it is worth waiting for a late decision. I think his main danger is away from his market rivals with STREET PARADE. He won over track and trip in July and ran better than his finishing position suggests at Brighton last time out but looks vulnerable off 71 at this stage of his career. While WINGS OF A DOVE is on a dangerous mark but is now 0 from 12, so she is yet to convince that she has a winning attitude – 1 point win @ 7/2″  WON 100/30

Thursday 9th September

In the handicaps there are two short-priced favourites that I would not take on: SKY BLUE THINKING bids to complete a four-timer. He has been a revelation since dropping to 7f and his win over Olivia Mary, looks decent. SKY BLUE THINKING has a 6lbs penalty but is due for an 8lbs increase, and he looks worth sticking with – 1 point win @ 5/2″  WON 7/4

Saturday 4th September

With seven afternoon meetings the evening card at Wolverhampton might slip under the radar, but there is a standout selection in the nursery. MOHI would already look tasty off a mark of 82 on the strength of his second start at Ascot when only 5¾ lengths behind Go Bears Go. The son of Acclamation has had another start since then in a CD novice event when beaten only a neck splitting to subsequent winners, and with the Clive Cox yard in good form, MOHI must be backed”  WON 10/3

Friday 3rd September

In the spring UNCLE BRYN was considered to be a classic contender for the Gosden’s, after an encouraging third in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom, he finished last in the Dante. Something was clearly amiss that day as he has been given a long break and returns to the track, having been gelded, in the National Racehorse Week Handicap at Ascot (3:40). With dreams of classic glory long gone he looks like he has been re-invented as a contender for the Cambridgeshire. The type of the proverbial “group horse in a handicap” projects that his handler(s) excels at. UNCLE BRYN won both starts as a two-year-old, the second of which, a novice event at Wolverhampton, he gave the now 103-rated Dancing King 7lbs and a 4½ lengths beating. Dropped back to a mile for his return the son of stars looks more than capable of winning on a mark of 99 before going on to better things”  – WON 5/2

Thursday 2nd September

A lot of the runners in the six-furlong race are renewing rivalries from similar races in the League, but STRIKE RED won over CD two starts back and looks a standout pick after an eye-catching sixth at Lingfield last time out. Richard Fahey’s gelding did not appear to act on the Lingfield bends and it was remarkable that he ran on in the straight to be beaten by under two lengths. A return to the stiff and straight six at Newcastle could just what is required to return to winning ways– 1 point win @ 11/2 (generally)WON 9/2

Saturday 28th August

Interestingly, in the Close Brothers Invoice Finance Handicap, Roger Charlton trains one of the market leaders, SALIGO BAY, and has a good line on the form with BAGUE D’OR who was beaten by Boltaway last time out in June. That was over ten furlongs at Doncaster and both, Boltaway and the third have won twice since. Given that those two have gone up 15lbs and 7lbs, BAGUE D’OR looks well treated with a 2lbs rise. There is stamina on the dam’s side of the pedigree and if a step up to 1½m can see some further improvement, Chris Wall’s gelding should go close -1 point win @ 9/4″  WON 3/1

Friday 27th August

In the last race at HQ it’s interesting to see CAIRN ISLAND returning to the track and dropping back in trip after being unlucky over 7f at Chester last time out. There is a concern as to why he has been off the track for two months but on his seasonal debut he was fourth on the Rowley Mile course when mixing it with: Creatiive Force, Significantly, Jumby and Rohaan and yet races off 1lb lower mark. It is fair to say, he is one of the best-handicapped horses in training – 1 point win @ 4/1″  WON 3/1

Friday 20th August

In the Champagne Pommery Blanc De Blancs Handicap at Musselburgh  EMPIRESTATEOFMIND …John Quinn’s gelding has been slowly progressing this season and that Beverley effort and he is turned out again relatively quickly and dropping slightly in grade. He is the only three-year-old in this 0-70 event and has a solid chance 1 point win @ 100/30″  WON 11/4

Thursday 19th August

CHAMPAGNE PIAFF is interesting at Windsor. I backed him each-way at a big price last time out the Goodwood festival where I thought he out-ran his price, looking likely to be involved until fading late on…the drop in trip should suit½ point each-way @ 11/2″  WON 2/1

Thursday 18th August

In the first at Carlisle, I think SOUND REASON might have been over-looked in the market. Kevin Ryan’s string are flying with a 25% strike rate in the last fortnight. Dropping back to the minimum trip should suit the gelding, he has won over 5f at Newcastle, so this stiff track should suit. He is 6lbs above his winning mark but should have won at Haydock when his young rider mis-judged the winning post. Prior to that, SOUND REASON was a length third at Pontefract in a race that is working out well1 point win @ 9/1”  WON 3/1

Saturday 14th August

The seven-furlong handicap does have terrestrial tv coverage and ARATUS stands out as one a couple of three-year-olds taking on their elders. I suspect that connections of the Free Eagle colt were happy with an opening mark of 94 after winning a Doncaster novice by 7½ lengths in a good time despite being eased down. It is likely that he did not beat much on that occasion, but his mark looks fair based on his debut run against the now 103-rated Oo De Lally. I’m confident that Clive Cox would scratch ARATUS if the going became unsuitable and he rates a confident selection – 1 point win @ 9/4″  WON 9/4

The Grey Horse Handicap (2:35) is a bit of a novelty that I don’t usually pay much attention to, if it attracts punters to the sport then it’s a good thing. However, take away the hype and MITROSONFIRE is dropping significantly in grade after winning a better race at Ascot and yet with Stefano Cherchi’s claim is effectively 2lbs better off: ½ point win @ 9/2″  WON 5/2

Thursday 12th August

L’OPERATEUR looks interesting dropping back to 7f having been racing at ten furlongs. Last time he raced over 7f was when ½ length third in March, he followed that up with a good 2nd in a 0-75 at Windsor (good) over a mile, that race has worked out well, producing plenty of winners. After three subsequent poor efforts at 1m/1m 2f, it looks worth a try going back down in trip, and the gelding may be over-priced 1 point win @ 14/1″  WON 3/1

Wednesday 11th August

The best bet on the card is RICHES AND RUBIES who was unlucky when dropped to nine furlongs last time out. It is open to opinion, but I think she would have won with a clear passage and the step up to 1½ m is another positive: – 1 point win” WON 5/2

Saturday 7th August

We may have missed out when QUINTILLUS was a non-runner at Goodwood, but he is a confident selection to gain compensation at Newmarket (4:30) despite a 5lbs rise for an excellent third to Perotto in the Britannia at Ascot. QUINTILLUS appeared to be treading water in the final furlong so the drop back in trip should suit. The son of Dubawi is yet to be tested on a surface slower than good, but it looks likely that the going at HQ will not be an issue1 point win @ 5/4*”  WON 5/6  *15p/£ rule 4

Friday 6th August

At Brighton, MERLIN’S BEARD looks to be the best bet on the card in the 1½m handicap. The Dark Angel gelding is the most progressive runner in the line-up. He thrashed IT’S HOW WE ROLL at Bath last week, and a 6lbs penalty looks unlikely to produce a reversal of that form – 1 point win @ 11/8″  WON 15/8

After an impressive three-year-old season that saw GOLDIE HAWK (Haydock 8:25) notch a hat-trick, the filly has continued to improve as a four-year-old and should arguably be attempting to land another three-timer here if it wasn’t for a poorly judged ride by Pat Cosgrave at Yarmouth last time out. Quite how such an experienced jockey managed to run up a dead end in a race that effectively become a three-runner race is a mystery (I did not have a bet in the race). The daughter of Golden Horn acts on most going types but is so far untried on softer than good-to-soft. She remains on a mark only 2lbs higher than her last win and when third in a better race at Kempton and she looks worth an interest. Saeed bin Suroor has been excellent at producing winners returning to the track after a long break and ARABIAN WARRIOR, ironically ridden by Cosgrave, poses the biggest threat1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 3/1

Wednesday 4th August

One I put up at Sandown last week, but the meeting was abandoned before the race is VINO VICTRIX who is of interest again in the staying handicap at Kempton. The odds compilers had made KHAIZ the favourite on that occasion, unfortunately they have not made the same mistake, and as I feared, that abandonment has cost us. Hughie Morrison’s colt has been improving with each step up in trip getting off the mark over 1m 6f at Sandown at the start of last month. VINO VICTRIX has been raised a further 7lbs for that success, but it looks a good race for the grade as all the placed horses have won since. The step up to two miles is a slight concern base, but there is stamina in his pedigree on the dam’s side. The switch to Polytrack should not be an issue as the son of Sir Percy ran well at Lingfield as a two-year-old and with Hughie Morrison having acquired the services of Oisin Murphy, he looks a standout selection – 1 point win @ 13/8″  WON 5/4

Hopefully Bath will avoid getting any adverse weather conditions until Thursday at least as SKY BRIGHT is a confident pick for the fillies handicap. The daughter of Dawn Approach has taken her time to develop but has been progressing and got off the mark at the ninth attempt at Leicester last time out. She won comfortably despite racing keenly and has plenty of scope for further improvement 1 point win @ 3/1″  WON 100/30

It took a while for the penny to drop for YANIFER, but the gelding is attempting to land a hat-trick at Bath. The gelding looked to have won with a bit in hand at Lingfield last week. He is due to go up 4lbs for that, but with Saffie Osborne’s 5lbs claim, he effectively has a 1lb penalty, and should be difficult to beat 1 point win @ 7/4″  WON 15/8


I would usually be happy to sit out the lottery of the Steward’s Cup, but I do like one at a decent price. GREAT AMBASSADOR has had only ten starts so far and has improved under Ed Walker who has successfully dropped him back in trip. He won at comfortably at Kempton on his first start at six furlongs since his racecourse debut. He was third to Chil Chil at Newmarket on GuineasDay. That was a slowly run seven runner affair which would not have suited. I would be concerned if the going changed to soft again, but he has a fair each-way shout at a price  – ½ point each-way @ 16/1”  3rd 8/1

FRIDAY 30th July

I respect the chances of CROCODILE POWER but I am going to NIBRAS SHADOW as the nap, she is a standout pick with a 5lbs penalty due to go up 8lbs. The filly ran well enough when runner-up two starts back, third won next time out, but the manner of her win at Newcastle last time out suggests she is more than capable of following up quickly. Not a great price but she should be odds-on – 1 point win  WON 11/10


Fairly late into the night at Epsom, it might be worth taking a chance with ARTHUR’S VICORY. The filly had shown potential on debut at Chelmsford and stepped up on that next time out when second at Brighton. She was beaten 3 ½ lengths on that occasion, the winner followed up while the third also won. ARTHUR’S VICORTY took a step backwards when refusing to settle over nine furlongs at Lingfield. She showed the same tendency last time out in a slowly run affair at Ffos Las. I am taking a chance that she either encounters a stronger pace or she is made more use of, but she drops in trip and grade plus a further 1lb reduction in her rating means she can be given a chance – 1 point win @ 7/2”  WON 7/2

Wednesday 28th July

There’s a nursery on Sandown’s evening card) where I am going to take a chance on one that is unproven on softer ground. ROMANTIC TIME got off the mark at the third attempt at Yarmouth earlier in the month. She won with a bit in hand from Eve Lodge who was not disgraced in the Albany at Royal Ascot. The fourth at Yarmouth was beaten 1 ¼ lengths into fifth in the Super Sprint, while the sixth was only beaten a short head next time out. ROMANTIC TIME looks to be all speed, if she can handle different conditions, she looks good value – 1 point win @ 5/1″  WON 5/2


In the 3-y-o sprint I have question marks over the market leaders, and I think I may have spotted a bit of value with SILENT FLAME. The filly was progressing nicely under Rod Millman’s guidance at six furlongs before finding a mile too far at Newbury. She is only 2lbs higher than when runner-up at Leicester two starts back, the winner followed-up while the fourth was just beaten next time out. Back at a sprint trip she looks over-priced to get back on song: – 1 point win @ 7/1”  WON 100/30


At Haydock I am more than happy to give another chance to TWEET TWEET. Declan Caroll’s filly was a decent juvenile despite remaining a maiden after three starts. Connections wasted no time with maidens this season as she won a good sprint at Thirsk in a time just outside the track record. TWEET TWEET then disappointed at York when joint-favourite but may have been inconvenienced by a track bias. It is also a strong possibility that the handicapper has nailed her with the 10lbs hike, but she is an irresistible price and rattling quick ground is ideal – 1 point win @ 11/1”  WON 11/4 [30p/£ rule 4 on the 11/1]

At Newmarket, a rare bet in a 2-y-o novice/maiden; VALUE THEORY ran an encouraging debut behind two decent sorts at Kempton. A big filly, Kempton’s turns did not really suit, and she did well to put in some good late work to finish within 3¼ lengths of the principles. The course should suit much better here, and she looks good value to build on the promising debut– 1 point win @ 11/4”  WON 2/1

Thursday 15th July

I suggest a speculative each-way punt on at outsider at Leicester. 0-50 classified stakes are just about the basement in terms of class but there might be an opportunity at Leicester. GLORIOUS RIO has been campaigned at 7f/1m for the last twelve months, his BHA rating has slipped from 72 (under Charlie Hills) to just 48. Last time out he raced at 6f for the first time in a year and recorded by far his best effort for some time. Sent off at 40/1 he hit the front over a furlong out (hit 1.16) but idled in front and was closed down in the shadow of the post and finished ½ length third. That was the faster division of a 0-65 at Carlisle, the application of headgear looks a good call, and he wears cheekpieces for the first time. Hardly the most reliable of runners to put your faith in backing up a performance, but I think worth a chance at a big price, in a race with nothing special in opposition – ½ point each-way @ 28/13rd 11/1 [15p/£ rule 4 on 28/1]


OH THIS IS US [3rd 12/1] always appears to be under-estimated in the market, he won the City Plate Stakes in 2018 and was runner-up in 2019. He could hit the frame again, but SAFE VOYAGE is the nap. John Quinn’s gelding is a genuine group two performer over 7f with cut in the ground, and he gets optimum conditions here dropped in listed company. Forget his eight of nine in the John Of Gaunt Stakes last time out as he got trapped on the rail and was denied a clear run. His main market rival RHOSCOLYN has been a big improver this season, but he has to prove he is more than a handicapper and his win in that sphere last time out is not working out well [unpl 11/4]SAFE VOYAGE [NAP] – 1 point win @ 11/4”  WON 15/8

WINTER POWER ran well for a long way in the King’s Stand Stakes, he returns to listed company in the City Walls Stakes over CD where he easily won a similar race in May, from a subsequent listed winner – 1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 9/4

FRIDAY 9th July

DUBAI HONOUR would have gone in most notebooks after an excellent fourth in the Brittania on seasonal debut, especially as he fared best of those on the far side – ½ point win WON 11/2

An interesting staying handicap which is almost a re-run of the Copper Horse handicap from the Royal meeting. So many of them re-oppose that it would be easier to list the ones that aren’t. It is easy to make a case for AMTIYAZ, GLOBAL STORM and ARTHURIAN FABLE, but with little margin for error on revised marks, I will leave it up to others to work out. I am going to swerve the Copper Horse form and side with LIVE YOUR DREAM. Saeed bin Suroor’s gelding has only had six starts and has been improving with each step up in trip. Two starts back he found only Spanish Kiss too good at York, who bolted-up under 9lbs extra next time out. LIVE YOUR DREAM has been raised 10lbs for an easy 6 ½ lengths win over 2m at Wolves next time out, but the runner-up, Margaret Dumont ran will in the Northumberland Plate consolation, and I think the handicapper may not have caught up with the selection yet – 1 point win @ 9/1”  WON 7/2

The three-year-olds DARK SHIFT and BICKERSTAFFE make plenty of appeal in the Biowavego Wave Goodbye To Pain Handicap at Ascot, they are evenly matched and both have seen form boosted by the firs three home in the heritage handicap at Newmarket on Thursday…at the prices I favour BICKERSTAFFE; ½ point each-way @ 9/1”  WON 9/2


This listed event looks a bit more competitive than the previous race, and I’m siding with the progressive BAAEED as I thought he would be favourite, over St James Palace fourth, MAXIMAL. Originally most firms had them the other way round, but they have all re-aligned unfortunately, 15/8 is just about acceptable – 1 point win @ 15/8”  WON 10/11 (15% rule 4)

The 6f heritage handicap does appear to be a tricky puzzle to solve, BOOMSHALAA is the standout pick after his eye-catching second at Ascot, he looks sure to appreciate a return to a sounder surface and step up to six furlongs, but 5/1? Really? Should be 10/1 the field in this.  At a massive price ROYAL SCIMITAR is interesting, he is dropping back to a sprint trip having been campaigning at longer trips in pattern company, with the Cox yard now hitting form – ¼ point each-way @ 40/1”  4th 28/1


POTENZA won impressively over CD last week and is being asked to replicate that effort with a 6lbs penalty. As his AW rating is still below his flat turf mark, I think he possesses a bit of scope for an increase. His market rival DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO is clearly the danger, with only a 4lbs rise for a Nottingham win in which the runner-up won well next time out. He was runner-up in a ‘jumpers’ bumper’ over CD, so there are no worries about the track. On balance, I don’t think his form lines are a strong as those of POTENZA [NAP]1 point win @ 7/2”  WON 11/8


At the prices I want to side with IMPERIAL SUN. She has been third on her two starts this year at a mile and ten furlongs, but as a sister to a St Leger winner, she looks sure to need more of a stamina test – 1 point win @ 100/30″  WON 5/6 (40% R4)


OH SO WOKE was rated as high as 70 when with Willie McCreery and she stepped up on her debut for David O’Meara at Musselburgh last time out, not appearing to struggle with the longer trip as she was only collared late having led for much of the last two furlongs. She’s appears to be better than her current mark off 55 and has a solid chance to break her duck at Beverley taking on some exposed rivals – 1 point win @ 5/1”  WON 4/1

TUESDAY  29th June

The staying handicap has attracted thirteen declarations and looks a good betting heat. I agree with the layers that the two that stand out are DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO and TIGERTEN, but I expected them to be joint-favs. The Gifford horse is stepping up in grade, while Joseph Tuite’s gelding is effectively dropping in class. TIGERTEN found only a well-treated East Asia too good at Goodwood, before finishing 1¼ lengths third over 1m 6f at Sandown. Those two pieces of form are better than any recent form of his rivals and it looks worth taking on the fav – TIGERTEN – 1 point win @ 9/2 (R4 40p)”  WON 11/8

SATURDAY 26th June

“The market on the consolation Vase race for the Northumberland Plate is lopsided with EAST ASIA heading the market as he appears to be “well in” under a 5lbs penalty. However, I prefer the lightly raced ZEEBAND. He has to prove that he acts on tapeta and can stay the extra two furlongs, but there was a lot to like about his seasonal debut where he tired late on, beaten less than two lengths by Global Storm with Arthurian Fable, both placed in the Copper Horse Handicap at Ascot last week – 1 point win @ 5/1”  WON 4/1

OO DE LALLY is 3lbs higher than for a CD win in January, but on the same mark as when runner-up over a mile on the same course. Since then, Andrew Balding’s colt has been beaten 5¾ lengths by Rohaan over six furlongs at Ascot and runner-up to a well-treated ‘plot horse’ at Goodwood – Rhoscolyn followed up at Epsom, while the other placed horses were third and fifth in the Buckingham Palace last week. The selection goes to post with as good a form chance as anything on the card – 1 point win @ 5/2 (Bet 365 3/1)”  WON 7/2


“CROSSING THE BAR  showed much improved form for a step up to 1m 6f at Carlisle last time out. He was weak in the market that evening as several of his rivals were well backed. He got an 8lbs rise for that win but has potential to develop further off a revised mark of 85. Market rival SPANISH KISS showed big improvement when raced with ease in the ground at York, not surprising for a son of Lope De Vega. He got a 9lbs hike for that win, but that may not be enough to anchor him. The win at York was emphatic, beating Live You Dream by 3¼ lengths “eased down”. That rival won a handicap at Wolverhampton by a wide enough margin to earn him a new rating of 93. Allowing for some improvement from the Godolphin gelding after York, SPANISH KISS has potential for improvement from a perch of 84 and, at the prices, he is the selection: [NAP] – 1 point win @ 15/8”  WON 5/6

MARK YOUR CARD – no full stakes bets but selections for final day of Royal Ascot:

2:30 POINT LONSDALE [WON 10/11]/RADIO CAROLINE (e/w) [lost 50/1]

3:05 LIGHT REFRAIN [lost 18/1]/RHYTHMN MASTER (e/w) [4th 40/1]

3:40 ALBAFLORA [lost 13/2]/ WONDERFUL TONIGHT (saver) [WON 5/1]

4:30 GLEN SHIEL (e/w) [2nd 7/1]

5:00 ROHAAN [WON 8/1]/CHIEFOFCHIEFS (e/w) [4th 14/1]/GULLIVER (e/w) [5th 20/1]

5:35 SEASETT [lost 15/2]/FANTASTIC FOX [lost 11/2]


Later on the Newmarket card, BABY ALYA gets another chance to return to the winner’s enclosure after an unlucky fourth last time out on the Rowley Mile course. The filly won on debut at Newcastle before finishing third when returning to the track in a novice event. On her seasonal and turf debut in May, she ran well back against her own sex, beaten 1½ lengths. That doesn’t tell the whole story as she was trapped on the rail and repeatedly denied a clear run. She remains on the same perch of 73 and, based on that last run, she can win off it: – 1 point win”  WON 11/2


5:35 King George V Stakes (Handicap)

A cracking looking middle-distance handicap for three-year-olds, most of whom are completely unexposed. As if it isn’t hard enough anyway, throw in the possibility of heavy rain to put another imponderable into the mix. SUREFIRE impressed with a comfortable 3¼ lengths win at Leicester last week. He is due for a 9lbs hike but only carries a 5lbs penalty here. Unproven on soft ground, but Fastnet Rock has a win % on good-to-soft and heavy similar to the ratio for quicker ground, which is encouraging, as is the fact that he has won at Newcastle, which can suggest being able to handle softer ground – 0.5 point win @ 8/1”  WON 5/1


4:20 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes

LORD NORTH has officially improved by two stone since his win in the Cambridgeshire and deserves to head the market, but he does tend to throw in the odd inexplicable performance. In contrast, LOVE is ultra-consistent. Runaway wins in the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks highlighted that she had no peers from the classic generation last year. LOVE has been off the track a while, but her delayed seasonal return is apparently due to waiting for suitable conditions and she is a confident NAP selection LOVE [NAP] – 1 point win”  WON 11/10



2:30 Queen Anne Stakes

PALACE PIER does looks pretty much “a good thing” to kick off the meeting as his price of 4/9 implies. On BHA ratings the two ‘next best’ are the Ballydoyle pair, ORDER OF AUSTRALIA and LOPE Y FERNADEZ and there was little between the pair in the Breeder’s Cup Mile in November. They were closely matched in the betting but there has been an over-reaction to Moore choosing ORDER OF AUSTRALIA and LOPE Y FERNANDEZ now looks the value: LOPE Y FERNANDEZ – 0.25 point each-way @ 14/1; 0.5 point win (w/o Palace Pier) @ 4/1″WON 2nd [to Palace Pier] @ 12/1

For the day’s nap I’m going to Brighton for a 2-y-o maiden. MAGIC WARRIOR was weak in the market on debut at Newmarket but wasn’t disgraced in fifth beaten three lengths. He improved on that next time out at York’s Dante meeting, again finishing fifth, but the second, third and fourth have all won since, suggesting his run can be marked up. I can forgive his eighth of ten at Chester as he was drawn 8 and raced at least five wide all the way. Of his rivals here, I expect MAYFAIR STROLL (2nd 9/1) to show improvement stepped up to 6f as she is bred for stamina – MAGIC WARRIOR [NAP] – 1 point win”  WON 11/4

Saturday 12th June

I am napping LA TRINIDAD . He is trying the intermediate trip of 1m 1f for the first time but has won over an extended mile at Beverley. He is now 1lb lower than his rating when recording his best RPR at the Ebor meeting last year. He takes a significant drop in class here and I expect him to go close: 1 point win @ 5/1″  WON 4/1

Thursday 10th June

The feature race is the listed Abingdon Stakes. CREATIVE FLAIR is currently disputing favouritism with LILAC ROAD, but Charlie Appleby’s filly looks the one to side with. CREATIVE FLAIR Is beautifully bred for middle-distances but has shown enough speed for a win and place at listed level. The step up to ten furlongs looks ideal, the daughter of Dubawi still holds a Ribblesdale entry – 1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 13/8

Tuesday 9th June

Although not advised as full stakes bet, members were given the following preview:

In the mile fillies handicap MORROOJ is a skinny price at 6/4 to defy a long absence since pulling-up at Newmarket. You can make a case for a few of the rivals; ASCRAEUS has form figures of 777785 [WON 12/1] after an unsuccessful spell on the AW but has dropped to a perch 12lbs lower than when runner-up at Windsor in October. On his return to turf last time out he was fifth in a Newbury class 4 that is producing winners, and I think he will go to post with an outside chance. FOXY FEMME [4th 4/1 < 12/1] is another one that has slipped to a basement mark, and the booking of Hollie Doyle is interesting. Probably worth small stakes, split on the pair with only one non-runner required to spoil each-way betting.”

I said I can make a case for every runner [in the race]; KING’S PROCTOR is currently rated a career low of only 62. In his last four starts he has beaten only one rival and his only win to-date was a maiden in 2017, so 66/1 is justified. But less than two years ago when with Mark Johnston, he was third in a Sandown 0-95 rated 89. If you can excuse his regression due mainly to being campaigned on AW, then 66/1 is a fair price to take on him returning to form back on turf3rd 50/1

Wednesday 2nd June

The feature race on the Nottingham card is the class 3 sprint and I think the favourite, Crimson Sand, is worth taking on. The gelding has had only four starts to date, two wins on the AW and two unplaced efforts on turf, yet he is 2/1 fav for this. Rebel At Dawn is effectively dropping in class having been third in a hot Newmarket handicap last time out. Prior to that the son of Dandy Man was only beaten 6¼ lengths in a Thirsk race that has thrown up plenty of winners, and I expected him to be favourite – 1 point win @ 100/30”  WON 11/4

Saturday 29th May

Poet’s Lady did well to finish third despite doing everything wrong at Ascot last time out. She was slowest leaving the stalls and then got lit up and refusing to settle. So, finishing within three lengths of two progressive rivals was a decent run under the circumstances. She appears to act on any going but is better with ease in the ground and remains on the mark she raced on at Ascot (77) dropping significantly in grade. David Barron’s filly is less exposed than most of her rivals and has plenty of scope for improvement. Of the older horses – 1 point win @ 7/2″  WON 2/1

Thursday 27th May

“Even though he is on the drift this morning, Van Gerwyn looks over-priced for his chances of hitting the bullseye this afternoon. Paul Midgley’s gelding can be excused for his tenth of ten at Beverley last time out, as he was still in with a chance when squeezed out at a vital stage with no chance of recovery. Two starts back, he was beaten a short head at the same track in a 0-75 heat. Back on the same mark of 62 leaves him on his last winning mark in August last year, that was also the last time he dropped into class 6 company on turf. The shape of the race looks ripe for an each-way play with eight runners. If there are any non-runners before the “off” I would still take two places at a quarter the odds, and he looks worth a play– 0.5 point each-way @ 7/1 (Unibet 15/2)”  WON 8/1

Wednesday 19th May

“I put up Noorban for a second time earlier in the month and I am giving her another chance at Ayr. The filly was a confident selection last time out, but the ground went completely against her when it became soft and that run can be excused. Prior to that, she finished a 5¾ lengths fifth in a hot race at Thirsk which was run in a fast time and already produced two winners from the placed horses. Dropped back to 5f, with her mark reduced by 2lbs and with the prospect of better ground, the filly must be backed – 1 point win @ 9/1”  WON 7/2

Tuesday 18th May

Bonnyrigg got off the mark at the second time of asking at Newmarket before he too was gelded after two unplaced efforts in nurseries. He was entitled to need the run at Newmarket on his first outing as a three-year-old and the step up to a mile looks likely to eke out further improvement, a mark of 75 looks exploitable – 1 point win @ 9/2 (Bet365 6/1)”  WON 11/4

Saturday 15th May

“Invite has gone up 3lbs for being runner-up at Lingfield last time out but that looks lenient in the light of the winner Save A Forest subsequently finishing 2nd in the Lingfield Oaks trial. The sixth from the Windsor race also won next time out to give the form a further boost and Invite looks worth following – 1 point win” 
WON 6/1

Jumby did well to finish third in a CD handicap last month as he was denied a clear run on a couple of occasions. Creative Force won that race and went on to win again at the Guineas meeting from an 8lbs higher mark, beating Perotto who also runs here but looks to have it to do against Jumby on these terms.  – 1 point win @ 3/1 ”  WON 11/4

The London Gold Cup Handicap  is always one to follow as some of the top yards usually send some of their best handicapped three-year-olds. Bay Bridge is a confident selection, the New Bay colt won with any amount in hand and a mark of 90 looks a fair starting point. The third in that Newcastle race, Khezaana, won a Beverley handicap next time out off 75 – 1 point win @ 7/2″  WON 11/4

Friday 14th May

One I’ve put up a couple of times when she has been a non-runner is Company Minx she had to race widest of all at Windsor last time out and, although on the retreat, was also squeezed out. She is now 11lbs lower than when a close fifth in a competitive Ascot handicap (when trained by Clive Cox). She drops significantly in grade here and is worth a punt at a big price: – 0.5 point each-way [only Bet365 priced up @ 25/1″  WON 50/1

Wednesday 12th May

William Haggas certainly knows how to get one ready firs time out and does like to have winners on the Knavesmire. Ilaraab is 7lbs higher than when completing a five-timer last season, so definitely needs to improve again to be successful in a hot race on his seasonal debut. Already a winner at the track, his pedigree suggests he will have no problem stepping up in trip. My Frankel is the big danger, the colt was progressive as a 3-y-o, his final run at Ascot can be ignored as he was found to be lame post-race. He won nicely from Taqareer at Kempton, who had a fitness advantage and there is no obvious reason why he should reverse the form. Both Ilaraab and My Frankel hold entries in the Hardwicke Stakes, so have potential to rate higher than the low hundred. At 9/2 and 5/1 we are looking at 2/1 coupled, so I am going to side with Ilaraab who has proved that he acts on most going types – 1 point win @ 9/2”  WON 7/2

Wednesday 5th May

“At the 48-hour stage the maiden Darlectable You was installed as favourite for the Cheshire Oaks. This was presumably due her being a (Dubawi) sister to Too Darn Hot as her form so far does not entitle her to be favourite. That was clearly wrong as Dubai Fountain is the clear top-rated runner. She was fourth in the fillies’ mile last season despite racing alone on the far side at Newmarket, 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth was third. Dubai Fountain is a half-sister to the decent hurdler Leoncavallo, so stamina looks assured, and she appears to act on any going. Zeyaadah is three from three so far and looks the biggest threat, she progressed from novice wins at Chelmsford and Beverley to a listed race at Newmarket where she beat Mystery Angel, who won the Pretty Polly Stakes last week. I have it between the two, but I think Dubai Fountain can use her stamina to good effect and she is now market leader – 1 point win @ 7/4 (Bet 365 15/8)”  WON 13/8

Another test of the draw bias with a 3-y-o handicap over the minimum trip, but I am looking beyond stalls 1-3 as I expect Showalong to win from trap 4. The colt won twice from four starts as a 2-y-o, both on soft so he will appreciate any rain. He convinced me that he is on a winning mark with a bold show in what looked a decent heat at Thirsk for which he was dropped 1lb and I expect him to go well. First Company is still a maiden but was highly tried last year, his fifth in the Cornwallis is good form and he has a good draw if he can overcome a long lay-off – 1 point win @ 5/2″  WON 13/8

Friday 7th May

Professional Widow just failed to win despite racing keenly and alone on outside against a rail track/pace bias at Craven meeting. An opening mark of 80 appears lenient and she can get off the mark at the fourth time of asking in a fillies’ handicap  1 point win @ 11/4”  WON 3/1

Saturday 1st May

My only bet at HQ is in the last the Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Handicap  with Crossford. The Dawn Approach colt was progressive as a 2-y-o getting off the mark at the third attempt, after two placed efforts in strong maidens. The win was at Newcastle on the AW where he needed every yard of the stiff 7f. Crossford made an encouraging comeback when finding one too good over CD and should be spot on today – 1 point win @ 4/1″  WON 7/2

Friday 30th April

Only four runners for the mile conditions stakes, which is almost a re-run of the European Free Handicap but over an extra furlong. Legal Attack, Royal Scimitar and Dark Lion all renew rivalry, there was not much between them at Newmarket, and I expect there won’t be again. I prefer the fourth runner Qaader. His juvenile campaign tailed-off after a good start including 2nd in the Coventry, there was a lot to like about his Chelmsford return and I expect him to be too good for his trio of rivals here 1 point win @ 11/8″  WON 5/6

Thursday 29th April

In the 3-y-o sprint handicap I am keen on Coley’s Koko. The Kodiac filly could be on a good mark rated 58. Pick of her juvenile form was a fourth place in a fillies’ conditions race over CD. The first three home that day are now rated 84, 77 and 79. They have obviously progressed while her form appears to have regressed, but she has only raced twice since then: nothing went right for her in a Bath Nursery, and she shaped well on her first start as a three-year-old beaten 3½ lengths at Nottingham despite racing keenly and I think she’s worth a bet 1 point win @ 15/2″  WON 11/4

Wednesday 28th April

There are plenty of fillies with grade one entries in the Royal Ascot Trials Day British EBF Fillies’ Conditions Stakes. Creative Flair isn’t one of them, but she looks the pick of the eight declared runners. The Dubawi filly got off the mark at the second time of asking when winning nicely at Sandown. The filly she beat that day, Statement, was only just denied in the Fred Darling last week and the form looks sound – 1 point win @ 2/1 (9/4 Bet365)”  WON 9/4

Saturday 17th April

George Peabody did impress when getting off the mark at Doncaster and can improve again here to concede 7lbs all round -1 point win”  WON 9/4

Friday 16th April

There is little form to go with the rest of the Newbury card and the appropriately named Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Handicap is a tricky 3-y-o handicap. Mithras ran a remarkable debut at Sandown where the RP commented “Slowly away, ran green, in rear, pushed along from over 3f out, headway but still plenty to do over 1f out, kept on strongly inside final furlong, went fourth inside final 110yds, nearest finish (jockey said colt was slowly away)”. That maiden included four subsequent winners including: One Ruler (114) Maximal (92) and Latest Generation (95). He then ran a shocker at Newbury after getting restless in the stalls, but he at least broke his duck at Newcastle last time out, the first and second drawing well clear of the field. Still in the Guineas at this stage, he is expected to rate higher than 90 – 1 point win @ 3/1 [Bet365 7/2]”  WON 21/5

Friday 9th April

Dirty Rascal ran well on seasonal debut at Doncaster going down by neck and followed up with a win at Wolverhampton on Easter Monday. He can follow-up under a 5lb penalty at Leicester – 1 point win @ 5/2″  WON 11/8

Saturday 3rd April

It may be worth taking a chance on Eton College, the last time he ran on turf he won at Leicester and yet he comes here 4lbs lower. That is courtesy of a poor campaign over the winter, but he goes well after a break and is good value to return to form on grass – 0.5 point each-way @ 14/1″  WON 11/1

Saturday 20th March

Wilde About Oscar has won three from four novice hurdles this season, the defeat when pulling up in the Challow at Christmas. He showed no ill-effects from that when returning to winning ways at Exeter. He was put up another 10lbs for that win, but the form has been boosted by the second and third running well at Cheltenham this week, and he may have some improvement left – 1 point win @ 3/1″ WON 9/5

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2021

“A Plus Tard turned the novice handicap chase into a rout two years ago and has a solid chance of Gold if proving to have the stamina required. A win in the Savills Chase suggests he will stay the additional two furlongs, but that Savills Chase was another bunch finish. I still wouldn’t rule out stable mate, and horse to follow, Minella Indo who fell early in that race. He has been out of form so far this season but ran a great race in the RSA last season, where he appeared to get involved in a scrap with Allaho a long way out and set the race up for Champ”-0.5 point each-way @ 9/1″ WON 9/1

Saturday 13th March

“I tipped Langer Dan last time out at Market Rasen, when I mentioned that he had been given a sympathetic ride. That was his first run after a wind op, and I will give him another chance as I am convinced that he is well-handicapped… I expect a much-improved performance – 1 point win” WON 5/1

Friday 12th March

David Pipe is having his best season for a while, and Fergus Gillard has certainly been part of the team as his claim has been invaluable. The pair have sound claims for bagging another winner in the first at Sandown. Gericault Roque got off the mark at Plumpton in January where he beat Natural History, who is considered by a few to be a good thing in the Imperial Cup on Saturday… but I am prepared to forgive the selection for a defeat at Fakenham, and I believe he is on a winning mark on 117 – 1 point win” WON 3/1

Saturday 6th March

“Fair play to Kelso for staging a quality card so close to the Festival, the feature race, the Morebattle Hurdle, has £75k prize money. Paul Nicholls has certainly targeted the meeting and sent a strong ‘squad’ and it is interesting that Harry Cobden is making the long trip to the border rather than take a “penalty-kick” with Hitman at Newbury. Nicholls and his former assistant, Dan Skelton, appear to have a duel in the Cyril Alexander Memorial Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, but I think Cedar Hill could be a bit of value against the front two. Already a dual CD winner this season, his bid for a hat-trick can be marked up as all the fences were omitted in the straight, which would not have played to his strengths – 1 point win @ 4/1 (Hills 9/2)”  WON 100/30

Tuesday 2nd March

At Catterick, Relkadam makes obvious appeal under a 7lb penalty for a good win last week and is the right favourite. Whether or not he should be odds-on against the in-form Miss Amelia and the well-handicapped veteran Halcyon Days is another matter. Miss Amelia lines-up here in the form of her life, a 5lb rise may not be enough to stop her winning again 1 point win @ 100/30″  WON 100/30

Saturday 20th February

Remastered had decent form in bumpers and hurdles races and is making up into a proper chaser. He looks to have plenty of scope for further improvement, with the Pipe yard in good form, he has a few pounds to find on official ratings but looks more than capable of earning a rating in excess of 138 1 point win @ 4/1″  WON 9/2

Wednesday 17th February

“I have been waiting for Equus Dreamer to run again after he caught the eye when third at Taunton. That was a good effort after the best part of two years off the track. The winner that day, Stellar Magic, followed up next time out, before disappointing at Warwick on Monday. The maiden pointer looks likely to be suited by a step up in trip, and looks a bit of value  – 1 point win @ 4/1 (Hills 9/2)”   WON 4/1

Tuesday 16th February

“The good news is that one I mentioned at Kempton, Merry Secret, has drifted to a better price. He won well last time out, and looks up to defying a weight rise – 1 point win @ 4/1″  WON 3/1

Saturday 13th February

“A shorter price than ideal, but Arafi look the best bet on the cards at Wolverhampton (5:45). She is a fast-improving filly and, with luck in running, should be up to defying a 6lb rise -1point win @ 9/4″  WON 3/1

Sunday 7th February

“I am keen on the chance of Threeunderthrufive. The manner of his two hurdles wins so far, suggests he could have an outside chance in the Albert Bartlett at the festival. Paul Nicholls has “had this race in mind for some time” and has a good line on the form of Fantastikas. I would imagine that he regards Threeunderthrufive as a good deal better than stablemate Bardbados Bucks. The Golden Rebel was impressive on debut at Doncaster, there were a few wide-margin wins at Town Moor that weekend, and I am not convinced that the form can be taken as reliable. I expected the selection to be shorter than 9/4, so he warrants a bet 1 point win @ 9/4”  WON 11/10

Saturday 6th February

“Musselburgh also has a two-day Cheltenham trials meeting, albeit a low-key affair, but it serves a purpose and is keenly contested and competitive. Dubai Angel contests a veteran’s chase but has only run twenty times in five years of racing. He is unexposed over fences and could be the answer: Dubai Angel – 1 point win @ 13/2 (generally, Bet365 7/1)”  – WON 4/1

“In the Scottish County Hurdle Torigni and Christopher Wood head the market, with the pair renewing rivalry after filling the places. There was not a lot between them on that occasion, and the 7lb that Angus Cheleda can claim could make the difference for Christopher Wood who won well at the same meeting last year and get the vote:
1 point win @ 7/2 (15/4 Power)
 WON 11/4

“I wouldn’t normally be looking for the bumper to get me out of trouble but Kilcruit looks like the most likely winner of the Cheltenham bumper based on the way he won at Navan, I expect him to be shorter than 15/8 at off-time 1 point win @ 15/8 (Boyles & Unibet 2/1)”  WON 11/10

Saturday 23rd January

The Matchbook Best Odds Handicap Chase has been snubbed by ITV, but there are a couple of interest. Yalltari ran well in the Welsh National Trial before getting outstayed by Secret Reprieve and The Two Amigos, he’s been dropped 2lbs for that, so below his last winning mark and with course form, he has to have a chance. Enqarde was a winner for us over hurdles earlier in the winter, he looked to be travelling well when unseating in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock and is worth another chance. Not ideal but as the prices have shortened, I suggest split stakes on the two

Ascot 2:25 – Yalltari – 0.5 point win @ 5/1; – 4th
Ascot 2:25 –Enqarde – 0.5 point win @ 13/2 – WON 4/1

“Taunton does attract the ITV cameras for the Weatherbys Portman Cup Chase, but it’s two other races on the card that have attracted my interest: the class two handicap hurdle has attracted a good line-up and Brewin’upastorm looks over-priced to me returning to the smaller obstacles. On his best hurdles form he should be up to conceding weight all round, and with Olly Murphy back in form, the selection is worth a bet”

Taunton 2:45 – Brewin’upastorm – 1 point win @ 5/1 (Bet365 6/1) – WON 3/1

“The mares handicap chase also makes some appeal. Molly Carew ran well in last year’s renewal, when a bad blunder may have cost her, and she attempts to make amends off of a mark 9lbs lower. She has been out-of-sorts in two starts so far this season, but had a similar preparation last year, so one suspects that this might have been the plan”

Taunton 4:00 – Molly Carew – 1 point win @ 10/1 – WON 10/3

Friday 15th January

“In the second division of that race, Pallas Dancer has plenty of appeal. Having only raced six times, the War Command gelding has shown steady improvement stepping up in trip, he tackles ten furlongs for the first time. However, he won over an extended nine furlongs last time out, the second and fourth have won since, and he’s only gone up 3lbs. He does not have proven form at Gosforth Park, but he ran well in a novice event over six furlongs and has scope for further progression. The favourite, Termonator, boasts strong credentials but has to prove his defeat at Wolverhampton last time out was due to the track and not the trip, he’s worth opposing – 1 point win @ 5/2″  WON 4/1

Thursday 14th January

“Fair play to Chelmsford, paying prize money down to eighth place in some of the lowest rated races, and rewarded with many entries. Fair to say a 0-50 classified stakes isn’t many people’s cup-of-tea, although plenty of punters seem to have backed Trepidation already. He is the most likely winner, but there isn’t a lot between him and My Footsteps based on their run two starts back (over CD), where they both met trouble in running, although Trepidation was the real eye-catcher. Since that run, My Footsteps was again unlucky with the draw, and I’m convinced he was better than his finishing position (5th) suggests. There isn’t much between rivals at this level, the fav looks the one to beat, but at 4/5 the market believes he has a 55% chance of winning, while at 9/1, the selection has only a 10% chance. I will take a chance at those odds: – 1 point win @ 9/1 (Skybet 10/1)”  WON 9/2

Monday 11th January

“… the obvious starting point is Holly Doyle’s mount, Aviary, likely to be over-bet as an eye-catcher last time out and trained by Roger Charlton. She could be interesting on handicap debut off of 70. Laxton Ladd could also have been market leader with a good second last time out in a race that has had the form franked. However, I am going to take a bit of a chance with Muay Thai. The son of Acclamation wasn’t disgraced competing at a higher level than this as a juvenile. He ran well after a break and gelding operation last time out when proving no match for the prolific Rohaan. The handicapper has dropped him a further 2lbs for that, and I’m hoping he can be competitive here in a 0-70 event 1point win @ 6/1 (13/2 Hills) “  WON 7/2

Saturday 8th January

“In the Welsh National, purely from a handicapping viewpoint, all Secret Reprieve has to do is turn up, negotiate 23 fences and stay the extended trip. Surely the odds on that happening is less than 4/1? He demolished a strong field in the trial race, in similar conditions. The handicapper believes he should carry 12lbs more than he did that day, and yet he has to carry just a 4lbs penalty, as the race was an early closer. He may be a short price for such a test, but on ratings he is “thrown-in”1 point win @ 4/1″  WON 5/2

Ask Me Early …the gelding has already proven that he acts on today’s conditions and track, and a 6lb rise is unlikely to stop his progression – 1 point win @ 5/2″  WON 

Tuesday 29th December

Annie MC, a mare who drops in class and takes on her own sex after running well in better company against geldings. She was prolific for two seasons and has dropped to her last winning mark, so looks well-treated in this listed race – 1 point win @ 3/1″  WON 11/4

Boxing Day 26th December

At Wincanton, the EBF Mares’ Novices’ Chase has the three main protagonists closely matched on official ratings, but I think a mark of 134 seriously under-estimates Momella. She doesn’t have many miles on the clock for a soon-to-be nine-year-old, 5/4 is shorter than I am usually willing to take for a chase, but I think she should be odds-on: – 1 point win @ 5/4WON 7/4

Saturday 18th December

“The exciting Ascot card ends with the competitive Betfair Exchange Hurdle …with the heavy overnight rain turning the Ascot going heavy, I believe there is another opportunity, particularly with firms going six places. Lightly Squeeze is proven in testing conditions and looked like playing a hand in the finish of the Betfair Hurdle when coming down at the last. That race has thrown up plenty of winners, so too has the Welsh Champion Hurdle, where Lightly Squeeze finished a disappointing seventh, prompting a wind op. Hopefully that will eke out further improvement, and with Harry Fry in good form, he looks to have sound claims – 1 point each-way @ 16/13rd 22/1

Saturday 12th December

“at Wolverhampton I will be backing Daheer. The colt got off the mark quickly for David Loughnane after moving from Owen Burrows, and that CD win has been boosted by two good efforts from the runner-up. It looked a strange decision to try and follow up by attempting 1m 4f, which didn’t appear to suit. He’s back in trip to try and resume winning ways and has conveniently been dropped a 1lb…  1point win @ 5/1″  WON 4/1

Friday 11th December

“There is only 9lbs between the eight runners on ratings, but I think Mister Fisher has scope for more improvement as I can see him being a Ryanair horse. I can forgive his run in the ‘Paddy Power’ on account of the going, he should get favourable conditions here and he should go well 1 point win @ 5/1″  WON 9/2

Thursday 10th December

“I know a few punters that will not back a horse that fell last time out, it is something I take into consideration but I don’t have it as a rule not to be broken. El Kaldoun fell last time out, but that won’t stop me backing him on Thursday. In fact, I am more concerned why he drifted from 9/4 to 7/2 on that occasion. Prior to that, the gelding had bolted-up at Hexham beating The Ferry Master who has gone up a stone after two subsequent wins. The fourth in that race has also won since. On paper this looks a tougher assignment against some unexposed rivals, off of a 12lbs higher mark, but his main rival, Palmers Hill, is making a seasonal debut and may need the run, so the selection is worth backing  El Kaldoun – 1 point win”  WON 15/2

“At Newcastle, Enqarde makes plenty of appeal in the novice hurdle after a fine effort last time out at Ascot. That neck second to Tide Times is better form than anything else on offer here… the selection should be favourite and must be backed 1 point win”  WON 100/30

“One who may be a bit of value is Count Of Amazonia. Admittedly he is stepping up from class 4 to class 2 on a rating 5lbs higher than when he won last time out, that was his stable debut after a break and the runner-up has won since. Marco Botti’s colt looks to have plenty of scope for further improvement taking on some talented but exposed rivals. He looks the play at the prices  – Count Of Amazonia – 1 point win @ 13/2WON 7/4 

Friday 4th December

“The highlight of the card is the My Oddsboost On Betfair Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase which has a touch of real quality, and there are several that have gone into the notebook that clash here. One I’m keen to back is Alnadam, on his last start last season he beat Demachine (over hurdles), an impressive winner at Ascot last month. Alnadam was entitled to need his seasonal debut at Carlisle but was beaten narrowly by Rath An Iuir, who won well next time out off of a 6lbs higher mark. The selection is 12lbs higher than his winning hurdles mark, but he has scope for further improvement – 1 point win”  WON 11/2

King Of The South was a good winner for us last month, and I’m backing him to defy a 6lb rise and step up in grade over track and trip – 1 point win @ 5/2″  WON 6/4

Saturday 27th November

“At Newbury, Next Destination brings grade one hurdles form to the table, including when beating Delta Work at Punchestown. He ran an encouraging comeback race, after an absence of more than two years, at Wetherby in a grade two conditions event. Kalooki has already won over fences and the form of that easy win has been franked by the runner-up. Both look like being top class novice chasers, but Next Destination is the pick1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 11/8

Friday 20th November

“It is an under-statement to say that Catterick lacks the quality of the runners at Ascot, but I do think there is a decent betting opportunity in the Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Chase. I think all of those that head the market have question marks against them, as does the rag Lough Derg Jewel, but there is a decent case to be made for him. He is race-fit after two races over hurdles already this autumn and returns to chasing on a mark 2lbs lower than when he found just a well-handicapped Chidswell too good over a similar trip at Kelso, Chidswell won the Grimthorpe Chase next time out (with Brain Boranha well beaten). The main reason Lough Derg Jewel is the outsider is that he ran a shocker over hurdles last time out (trainers rep could offer no explanation for the performance), that does take some forgiving, but at 9/1 I’m prepared to take a chance – 0.5 point win @ 9/1″  WON 15/2

Thursday 19th November

Tamaroc Du Mathan was always likely to be a better chaser than hurdler, and he wasn’t bad in that sphere either, finishing fifth in the Betfair Hurdle. His only race since then was in the Silver Plate hurdle at Kempton (a consolation for Cheltenham eliminations) where he travelled nicely and was still going nicely when appeared not to stay the extended two-and-a-half miles. In Paul Nicholls stable tour he said of Tamaroc Du Mathan: “my plan is to run him in a novice handicap chase over the coming days…I’ve been really pleased with the way he jumps fences and would say he’s a novice chase winner waiting to happen” quite an endorsement…if you can get on with Hills take the early 11/2 [10% NR deduction]”  WON 5/4

“Secret Treaties may be worth another chance. She got off the mark at Kempton two starts back over 7f and attempted to double-up under a 5lb penalty at the same track and dropped to 6f last time out. She was well supported that night and her finishing position does not truly reflect her performance, as she was squeezed out at a stage when she had just come off the bridle. I think she looked beat at the time, but with her form over 7f, she may have fought back. The main issue here is whether the shaper track will suit, which is a concern, so I suggest half stakes – 0.5 point win @ 9/1″  WON 11/2

Wednesday 18th November

“I am going to take a chance with Mitrosonfire. Willie Muir’s colt ran well over course and distance back in June, finding only Enduring too good, but beating the rest well enough. He then found another one too good at Chepstow and he can be forgiven a flop last time out on soft ground in a Newmarket sales race. He looks a bit of value to out-run his price 1 point win @ 16/1″  WON 7/1

Monday 16th November

Doctor Nuno travelled strongly over track and trip last time out and was unfortunate to bump into the then 55-rated Frow who has notched up a hat-trick on the way to a new perch of 71. If Doctor Nuno he can repeat that effort, then he should go close off of a 1lb higher mark 1 point win @ 7/1″  WON 2/1

Saturday 14th November

“I’m going to weigh-in with another top-weight in Mario De Pail (1:13). The gelding was unfortunate not to have beaten Eden De Houx at Chepstow last season when conceding 6lbs. He was pulled-up when thrown in the deep-end in the Supreme, but he ran an encouraging comeback in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. He looks likely to improve for a step-up in trip and has scope off of a perch of 133 – 1 point win @ 9/2″ WON 13/8

Friday 13th November

… a winner on the AW is as good as a winner anywhere else and in the last race of the day I like the prospects of Daheer who has moved to Mark Loughnane after getting off the mark for Owen Burrows. That was over CD and although he just held on, he had used up a lot of energy getting across from a wide draw and may have further improvement – 1 point win” (WON 11/1)

Tuesday 10th November

“One I am definitely backing is King Of The South although it is not a typical profile for a selection. The Kingman gelding last ran before the first lockdown and has since changed stable, so a bit to take on trust. His last run was in a Lingfield novice event. Although no match for the winner that day, he stayed on well for third. Luncies was the winner that day, who is now rated 99 and doesn’t look to have finished progressing. Although the runner-up has been disappointing since, it is worth noting that the fourth and fifth have both won. So, there are a few concerns, but I am prepared to take a chance at the price – 1 point win @ 10/1″  WON 11/2

Wednesday 4th November:

“While it does pay to try and find in-form unexposed runners we can be in danger of dismissing exposed, older horses too readily. Certainly the veteran Pour La Victoire appears to have been written off by punters in the opener at Lingfield. Tony Carroll’s gelding has always shown his best form on tight, undulating tracks like Brighton, Epsom and Lingfield. Granted his last four runs, away from those tracks, have been poor but he has dropped 10lbs since a third-place finish when he last raced at Lingfield. That was a 0-70 event over CD and both the winner and the runner-up have won since, and I think he’s worth a go at a decent price 1 point win @ 12/1″  WON 14/1

Saturday 17th October

There’s a couple at Wolverhampton’s evening meeting: two last time out winners go head-to-head over the minimum trip and on collateral form there is not much between A Go Go and Smokey, which is not surprising as the handicap is compressed to 4lbs between the runners. A Go Go has had plenty of opportunities to win off of marks lower than 60 and failed, so she is worth taking on with the progressive Smokey, who might have won more convincingly if she hadn’t been baulked: Smokey – 1 point win”  WON 13/2 [A Go Go 2nd 6/1]

“In the next I am keen on Melodic Charm, who looked like prevailing at Dunstall Park over 7f last time out; but appeared to run out of stamina against a useful rival in Clinician. A drop in trip looked inevitable for the filly, and back over 6f she should go close – 1 point win @ 7/1″  WON 7/2

No full advised bets for Quipco Champions Day but preview highlighted:

Champion Sprint Stakes

“A repeat of his last two races sees Dream Of Dreams head and shoulders above anything else in that, but he does have a tendency to thrown in the odd shocker and two of those have been in previous renewals of this. I’d rather look elsewhere than back him at 2/1… this will be the fifth time that Brando has run in the race and he’s finished in the first six on the other four occasions. He may be worth a bet in novelty markets e.g. top 4/5 finish” 2nd 80/1

4:15 Balmoral Handicap

“This is always a cracking handicap; and has a solid favourite with Raeeq who could put the icing on the cake of what has been a fantastic season for Shadwell. I doubt that I could back anything at 5/1 in such a competitive race with unknowns about the going, pace and draw…. I am surprised that Solid Stone is 33/1, he won nicely for us earlier in the season, and he would be my pick as an outsider with an each-way chance with 5 places” 2nd 16/1

Friday 17th October

“Bolshoi Ballet went into the notebook after an encouraging debut at Newmarket, finishing third despite running green and having to race wider than the first two. As a brother to Southern France he should be a decent middle-distance horse next season, but should be capable of winning at two and I think he should be odds-on – 1 point win @ 5/4″  WON Evs

Thursday 15th October

“Love it or hate it, Southwell does provide punters with an advantage as its unique surface doesn’t suit many runners. Exalted Angel is proven on the track and performs well after a break 1 point win @ 4/1″  WON 5/1

“Xcelente recorded some decent RPRs as a juvenile and has more scope than some exposed rivals on his first attempt at a mile. He was only just beaten at the track over 7f and a step up in trip looks likely to suit, with a slight drop in class too – 1 point win @ 7/2 (25p rule 4)”  WON 6/4

Saturday 10th October

“I usually love the Cesarewitch, and it’s been a good race for me in the past, but I don’t really have an angle on this year’s renewal. Great White Shark is the right favourite, she has an excuse for dropping out last year as she had got loose before the start, and she bids to make amends on a 3lb lower mark. I hate putting up favs in this type of race but…
I can see “Horse To Follow” Summer Moon (2nd 16/1) running into a place again, but is unlikely to be on a winning mark – Great White Shark – 0.5 point win @ 15/2″  WON 9/2

Wednesday 7th October

“The sole bet on Wednesday is Cmon Cmon at Newcastle. The Slade Power gelding got off the mark over CD last time out and a 4lb increase does not look harsh as the placed horses have subsequently given the form some substance – 1 point win @ 3/1″  WON 9/2

Wednesday 23rd September

“I’ve narrowed Wednesday’s cards down to just one bet; Enderman was progressing nicely before getting stuck in the mud at Windsor last month. It was torrential rain that day that made the ground very testing. The form of his fifth at Beverley prior to that is working out very well, and he did not get a clear passage that day. Off the back of that he was well-backed prior to the change in weather when he drifted from 6/4 < 3/1. He looks value to go well, after being gelded, and more importantly, he’s a decent price – 1 point win @ 10/1″WON 15/2

Saturday 19th September

“I also have two confident selections at Ayr: In the Firth Of Clyde Fillies’ Stakes Umm Kulthum surely only has to repeat her Lowther Stakes third to capture this Group 3. She showed her inexperience that day and has plenty of improvement in her – 1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 9/4

“In the last, Ascension is possibly nap material (Mithras being odds-on already in the opener at Newbury) after winning at Newmarket on his first start since being gelded. The third that day, went down narrowly at York next time out and the son of Dark Angel looked to have plenty of improvement to defy a 4lb rise – 1 point win @ 9/4″  WON 5/2

Saturday 12th September

Doncaster Champagne Stakes – “Chindit is unbeaten after two starts and the form of those two wins is rock solid, he’s the right favourite here, looks potentially top-class and must be backed Chindit 2 points win” WON 15/8

“On his early season form Wichita would be fav here, he has had excuses since and could be over-priced – 1 point win @ 7/2″ WON 11/4

(St Leger) Galileo Chrome continues to progress and showed no signs of stopping yet with a facile victory last time out, he looks the value in a competitive renewal – 0.5 point each-way @ 11/2″  WON 4/1

Friday 4th September

“At Ascot, I thought Laafy was unsuited by fast ground at Goodwood and is worth another chance – Laafy 1 point win”  WON 9/2

“Later on, Tempus won well last time out despite interference and can go in again off of a revised mark – 1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 13/8

Monday 31st August

“At Ripon, the well-bred Spirit Dancer makes plenty of appeal at 9/4 as I expected him to be fav based on the form of his second last time out – 1 point win” WON 3/1

Saturday 29th August

As mentioned on Friday, Le Don De Vie is closely matched with the favourite, Desert Encounter and having been a bit unlucky last time out, has an excellent chance to resume winning ways 1 point win @ 11/4″  WON 3/1

Saturday 22nd August

“Acklam Express ran a remarkable race at Goodwood, quickening clear to win a Nursery by 4 ½ lengths, despite looking like he didn’t act on the track! I expected him to be favourite here, so he has to be backed – 1 point win @ 11/2″  WON 100/30

Friday 21st August

“Wolves hosts an afternoon/evening card and there’s a couple there that I suggest backing Annie Rose won a similar race over track and trip last week and it’s difficult to see those that re-oppose turning the tables. She has a 6lb penalty but is due to go up 8lbs – 1 point win (best morning price [7/4])”  WON 4/5

Wednesday 18th August

“I’ve got the Gimcrack (Friday) on my radar for Rhythm Master, so I have to assume that Cairn Island has good enough form in the book to have sound each-way claims in the Nursery . Kevin Ryan’s colt found the former too hot at Haydock (third won since) before getting off the mark in style at Ayr and an opening mark of 80 is potentially lenient -1 point win @ 11/2″  WON 9/2

Saturday 15th August

“At Newmarket, after watching today’s racing I’m wondering whether the 4lb rise for Broughton’s Gold winning last time out is a bit lenient as the runner-up, Doc Sportello won on Friday and the (well-beaten fourth) was a good second at Chester. In view of that I’m prepared to side with Tom Clover’s gelding0.5 point win @ 3/1 3/1″  WON 5/2

Saturday 8th August

Thank You Next, who I like in the Nursery as she officially steps down in grade off of the same mark (78) as when third in a Goodwood nursery last week, where she struggled to go the pace over the sharp 6f but ran on looking in need of a step up in trip – 0.5 point win @ 13/2″  WON 7/2

“Ascot has a gentle reminder that it should be Shergar Cup day with the Shergar Cup Celebration Handicap which is a competitive race, despite only ten runners. Via Serendipity makes his stable debut having slipped to a dangerously low mark. It does tend to look that he is a better AW performer these days, but easy to forget he has top CD handicap form too. Kasbaan was an eye-catcher in the International Handicap at the track last month behind easy winner Blue Mist. His best RPRs have been at a mile or ten furlongs, but he’s been campaigned (admirably) over 7f. Officially, a victory here would require a career best (off 95), but he won “comfortably” off of a perch of 89 and the runner-up won next time out.  He should be competitive back over a mile, but Via Serendipity meets him on better terms than when beating him at Kempton and can’t be ignored – 0.25 point each-way @ 12/1WON 7/2

Tuesday 28th July

“An absolutely cracking renewal of the Sussex Stakes, probably as good as I can remember and while Siskin is the right fav, Mohaather really impressed when winning the Summer Mile at Ascot 1 point win”  WON 3/1

“Highlight of the Galway card is Galway Plate and I’m convinced that it will got to one of the Joseph O’Brien runners: Early Doors or Us And Them and I suggest playing both of them with six places on offer 0.5 point each-way @ 8/1″  WON 7/1

Saturday 25th July

“John Gosden does particularly well with Kingman progeny, and I was taken by the manner that Tsar won at Yarmouth and with that turn of foot I expect him to have plenty of improvement left in him. I was surprised he only went up 6lbs for that and think he is one of the best bets of the day – 2 points win”  WON 9/4

“I tried to find something to oppose Turntable and failed; and the lightly-raced son of Pivotal, looks capable of further improvement and  capable of defying a rise of 6lbs – 1 point win”  WON 6/1

“William Haggas is in flying form and hopefully he will leave the Knavesmire with a winner in Award Scheme. She beat a previous winner off level weights at Salisbury when stepping up beyond a mile for the first time, she has gone up 8lbs for that, but the fourth (over six lengths behind) won next time out 1 point win @ 5/2″  WON 11/8

Saturday 18th July

“The John Smith’s Cup Handicap … I’ll throw three darts at it: Fifth Position (3rd 6/1 < 9/1) has form this season that ties in with some of the best handicaps run so far; Sinjaari (WON 11/1 adv 14/1) makes a seasonal bow, but his short-head defeat to Headman could make him the best handicapped runner, Dark Jedi (4th 18/1 < 20/1) has been progressing race-by-race and may not have peaked yet”

“At the Curragh, Eddie Lynam’s Romantical Proposal looked to have been given a very tender ride when not finishing far behind the leaders in a similar race and should go well at a price”  WON 11/2 adv 2/1

Friday 17th July

“Chepstow Songkran won what looked a decent race for the grade a week ago and it’s not surprising that he is turned out quickly with a 5lb penalty as he’s due to go up 7lbs. He opened up at 100/30, but that didn’t last long and the market is now corrected with 9/4″ – WON 15/8

“Haydock – D’bai 1 point win (100/30 Hills) the runners for this conditions event are closely matched but D’bai stands out to me as having the proven form at the level. Similar to Ispolini, he’s consistently placed at Group level, has won a Group 2, and drops, unpenalized, into a class 3 event here”  WON 3/1

Sunday 12th July:
Royal Crusade was an eye-catcher in the Commonwealth Cup when dropping back to a sprint trip and he steps down significantly in class for the Qatar Prix de Ris-Orangis (Group 3) at Deauville (4:00). I expected him to be much shorter than 5/2:
Deauville 4:00 – Royal Crusade1 point win @ 5/2 – WON 21/10

Saturday 6th June
In the penultimate race on the card, I’m keen on the chances of another improver, Smokey Bear (5:20). Roger Charlton’s colt was progressive as a juvenile and the form of his Newbury maiden win looks solid. He is stepping up significantly in grade here but, having been raised only a 1lb for a subsequent novice stakes win, he starts the season on what looks to be a competitive mark. This is a tough race but 9/2 is a fair price as I expect him to be popular in the morning markets:
Smokey Bear (Newmarket 5:20) – 1 point win @ 9/2 (generally) – WON 4/1

Friday 20th March

The best betting heat on the Dundalk card is the sprint handicap where Major Power is all the rage in search of a four-timer. He may be vulnerable dropping back in trip where he will struggle to confirm places with Eacharn and Fit For Funcion on worse terms. Fit For Function left that form behind with a solid effort last time out over an inadequate trip and looks the value to improve on that run: 0.5 point each-way @ 11/2″  WON 11/4

“I’ve even been looking at the Jebel Ali card, I’m interested to see Miqyaas in the Derrinstown Stud Handicap who won impressively on only his second start but takes a significant step up in trip on a stiffer track and his pedigree doesn’t scream out that he needs a longer trip. So he is best-watched and stable companion [Shanty Star] could out-run his price (16/1) and hit the frame (2nd 25/1). In the last (1:30), Davy Lad is eye-catching dropping down in trip from the same yard after running well over 7f in Meydan. Another stable-companion, Shanaghai City drops back to the minimum trip for the first time since a solid effort over CD four starts back and could out-run his odds (14/1 with four places). WON 8/1

Friday 13th March

Al Boum Photo would be the first since Best Mate to retain the crown and has certainly been campaigned in a similar way to the triple Gold Cup winner with just the one run in a race well below his grade, the Grade 3 Savills Chase at Tramore. He was magnificent in winning racing’s greatest prize at the age of seven and has potential to improve as he may not have peaked yet. The win was even more impressive given that he made a serious error at the penultimate fence; 1 point win” WON 100/30

“Chosen Mate has to be the pick here after an impressive win last time out, form which has been franked and with the yard flying – 1 point win @ 6/1″  WON 7/2

Wednesday 11th March

As a result of Asterion Forlonge running badly in the Supreme there has been a big over-reaction in the market regarding Easywork who I’d put-up ante-post for the three-miler. His form is good enough for him to have an place claims in this and is worth a punt at the prices: 0.5 point each-way in “w/o Envoi Allen” market @ 11/1 Bet365; not fully priced-up at 9pm Tuesday; generally 25/1 in full market” 2nd (to fav) @ 12/1

Tuesday 10th March

Sometimes we can be guilty of ignoring the obvious when it comes to punting and if Epatante repeats her performance in the Christmas Hurdle she should win, although Henderson doesn’t seem to be able to split his contingent. I’m prepared to forgive her run at the festival last year; 2 points win @ 3/1″  WON 2/1

Saturday 7th March

“One runner on the card who will love conditions is Donna’s Delight who acts far better at the course than on tracks with a stiff finish. A price of 15/8 is borderline so I hope there are no non-runners: – 1 point win @ 15/8″ (WON 11/10)

Friday 6th March

Pres was a moderate hurdler but chasing seems to have been the making of him as he’s clearly progressive over fences. He was a good second at Newbury last week where he met a good winner and that looked a better race than this one. He’s proven in testing conditions and warrants a bet – 1 point win @ 9/4″ WON 6/5

“Chelmsford hosts an afternoon card and in the last I like the chance of Papa Stour who won well over CD two starts back before running admirably at Newcastle under his new mark when stepped-up in grade and down in trip and he should go well here – 1 point win @ 9/4″  WON 6/4

Wednesday 4th March

“I’ve been waiting patiently for the first bet of the month and I’ve got two for Lingfield on Wednesday: Renardeau can get us off to a good start at a short price on a track where he excels. He’s been unlucky to bump into a good one on his last two starts: – 1 point win @ 11/8″  WON 11/8

Al Daiha is harshly getting labelled a bridesmaid horse but she’s been unlucky to bump into two subsequent winners the last twice. I have a slight concern about the drop in trip, although that could help her settle from a wide draw, so I will split stakes and go each-way: – 0.5 point each-way @ 7/1″  2nd 7/1

Saturday 29th February

“Nicholls also has the favourite for Kelso’s novice hurdle which is due to be shown live on ITV but Clondaw Caitlin boasts the best form and is worth taking on the favourite with – 1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 2/1

Saturday 22nd February

“The Betway Chase ( Racing Post Chase to most of us) features the second, third, fourth and fifth from the 2019 renewal, none of which seem to be re-opposing on significantly better terms. I get the argument that Adrien Du Pont may have been a bit unlucky last year but doesn’t interest me at 5/1 fav (interesting to note though that Christmas before last he easily beat Just A Sting over CD on similar terms, so I couldn’t have the Fry horse). I’m taking the angle that better ground will see significant improvement in two of last year’s better novices who may be over-priced as they’ve failed to shine this season in testing conditions – Kildisart who ran well in the classy JLT and Mister Malarky who ran well in the RSA:
Kildisart – 1 point each-way @ 11/1 (4 places) – 5th (Some bookmakers paid top 5)
Mister Malarky – 0.5 point each-way @ 16/1″ WON 9/1

Wednesday 19th February

“Fairly short price but I did expect Southfield Harvest to be odds-on so 6/4 could be a bit of value against the fav Muckamore. The Kayf Tara gelding ran an encouraging debut over hurdles behind the useful Hurricane Harvey with St Barts back in third who won well at Ascot at the weekend. Last season he beat Stolen Silver in a bumper and that form is solid – 1 point win @ 6/4″  WON 11/8

Sunday 16th February

Sunday’s remaining fixtures must also be in jeopardy with no let up in the appalling weather conditions. Kempton hosts a reasonable AW card and hopefully conditions would have eased by the time the meeting starts. With due respect for the two that head the market for the 32Red Casino Handicap, Sky Defender looks the value in the race having put up a good effort against El Ghazwani last time out wh0 won well enough after a hike on Saturday, so an extra 5lbs may not be enough to halt the progression of the Farhh colt:

Sky Defender (Kempton 3:25) – 1 point win @ 9/2 (Hills & Victor) WON 4/1

Monday 10th February

“Clap Your Hands has risen 18lbs in the rating after completing a hat-trick of wins the last of which was punished with 11lbs, the gelding won so easily the last twice that is well-capable of defying that but Poppy Bridgewater claimed a further 5lbs that day so he’s effectively over a stone higher. I wouldn’t take him on but 5/4 is too short, it wouldn’t take much of a price increase to tempt me.”  WON 2/1

“Although, Beau Geste isn’t much bigger in the market, I think he has an outstanding chance here and I am tempted in by the short price. The gelding has really taken to the AW and a good third last time out has been franked by the first and third since – 1 point win @ 13/8″  WON 11/8

Saturday 8th February

“…worth noting is Paul Nicholl’s record in the race and he has two that could bounce back at massive prices: Pic D’Orhy (25/1) and Tamarac Du Mathan (40/1) – 50/1 with Bet365 only four places. It takes a big leap pf faith that either will show significant improvement for a sounder surface but at those prices, worth taking a punt”  WON 33/1 & 5th 50/1

“At Warwick, the mares in the listed hurdle looks closely matched on ratings but Indefatigable has posted some of her best RPRs on better ground and, without Lady Buttons to beat this time, looks to have sound claims”  WON 7/2

Saturday 1st February

“just the selections today: Reflektor (3rd 10/1), Big Shark (5th 7/1), Le Rocher (3rd 8/1),  0.5 points each-way @ 11/1, Benny Secret (WON 5/1), Greaneteen (WON 6/4) – 2 points win @ 15/8″

Sunday 12th January

Carefully Selected at Punchestown is definitely the standout pick of the day as I expect him to be a Cheltenham-type, he should win here and arguably 11/10 could be decent as he should be odds-on”  WON 4/7

“At Kelso, Aloomomo is interesting in here off of 110 after a pipe-opener at Doncaster last month. He’s mixed it with some top company in the past and was on 140 when going off fav for the Close Brothers nearly four years ago so he has to be of interest here, when I checked early tissues he was around the 7/1 mark but you’d be lucky to get 9/4 now…”  WON 7/2

Saturday 11th January (2 bets)

“I will nap Katpoli now he’s back on a left-handed track after flopping at Taunton where he was let-down by jumping markedly left, on some of his earlier form; this lightly-raced son of Poliglote has sound claims, particularly his fifth at Chepstow in a race that has produced multiple winners: – 1 point win @ 7/2″  WON 9/4

“The Classic Handicap Chase where I’m going to be boring and say that the winner will most likely come from between the front three in the market: The Conditional [3rd], Kimberlite Candy [WON] and Le Breuil [5th]… one that might be worth taking a chance with is Captain Chaos at a price. There is a case for forgiving his run in the Welsh National as he doesn’t appear to act at Chepstow but the time before that his second in the Rehearsal Chase has been franked with the third, Top Ville Ben, hacking up in the Rowland Merrick. He is 1lb lower than when sixth in the Kim Muir that has worked out well and is worth an interest: – 0.5 points each-way @ 16/1″  2nd 10/1

Monday 6th  January

Dorking Cock is interesting dropping back in trip after two attempts at middle-distance chases, his best hurdles form was over the minimum trip and he resumes his chasing career on a mark 8lbs lower than his hurdles rating and he looks a bit of value against the fav – 1 point win @ 11/4″  WON 11/8

“Another one the traders got wrong on their first show is Bee Able at Wolverhampton’s twilight meeting, as Hill’s originally went 9/2 co favs. Ralph Beckett’s filly caught the eye when a slightly unlucky fourth in a Kempton nursery last time out over an inadequate mile, runner-up has won since, she will appreciate the step up in trip as she’s middle-distance bred. The ten furlong trip on this tight track may still be on the sharp side but she is worth a bet  – 1 point win @ 11/4″  WON 3/1  

January 1st

“Although the form of Skandiburg’s eye-catching win hasn’t worked out so far, he looks totally un-exposed and connections have deliberately been patient waiting for the right opportunity – 1 point win @ 9/2″  WON 3/1

Angel Lane won well two starts back and ran creditably at a higher grade last time out; she would have been a two-pointer but I am concerned about a lack of pace with no obvious front-runner and it might be run at a false pace – 1 pt win @ 15/8″ WON 15/8

Saturday 28th December

“later on the card, Copperhead (2:25) a good winner for us at Wincanton, should be able to defy a 9lb rise and see off some progressve challengers, notably Cobolobo”
1 Pont Win at 7/2WON 3/1 

Boxing Day, 26th December#

the betting race for me of the Kempton card is the novices handicap chase (1:20) where several appeal, particularly the well-treated fav Roll Again, but at the prices I’m keen on the improving Commanche Red who is unlikely to meet anything of the class of his last two conquerors: Reserve Tank or Nube Negra and looks the value despite a question mark over whether or not he would appreciate more rain”

Commanche Red  – 0.5 points each-way @ 10/1 (4 places)  WON 4/1 

Thursday 4th December

Another one that should make a better chaser is Copperhead (Wincanton 1:30), he can leave the form of his seasonal debut behind as he was progressive as a hurdler and looks open to plenty of improvement”

1 point win @ 5/1 – WON 6/1

Saturday 30th November
Magic Saint holds strong claims (3.40 Newbury) having not stayed at Cheltenham, he’ll be suited by dropping back to 2 miles on this easier track.” – WON 3/1

Friday 22nd November

“…in the nursery Castlehill Retreat is stepping up in trip but I expected him to be disputing favouritism with Island Storm, who’s being asked to do no more than he’s already done, I’m forgiving an effort on soft ground last time out, and I’m surprised he’s available at 15/2 – 1/2 point each-way @ 15/2 [6/1 after rule 4]”  WON 9/4

Thursday 21st November

“I’m hoping all eight go to post for the second at Newcastle (1:55) as, although the market looks right with the front two – Deja and Paths Of Glory – at around 3/1 ON the pair, (nearly) every horse has it’s price and Sir Chauvelin looks too big at 25/1 if there are three places up for grabs having slipped to a tempting mark. It should be a run at a fast pace which will suit him as he stays further. I suggest a play in 3TBP markets”  3rd 50/1 [16.0 Betfair place market] 

Wednesday 13th November

“There may only be six declared for the handicap hurdle but it’s a competitive race and although he’s a worthy fav, I’m surprised The Wolf is as low as evens. I’m going to take a bit of a chance that Chti Balko can return to form having dropped to a dangerous mark of 132 on some of his earlier form. He should come on for his run in the Welsh Champion hurdle and should go well – 1 point win @ 4/1″  WON 11/4

Sunday 10th November

Champagne Court looks to have a great chance in the novices handicap chase (1:15) after a good effort in a competitive handicap hurdle at Chepstow. The surprise package could be Chambard (2nd 8/1) who may have been easily too over-looked, his second to Monsieur Le Coq last year (giving him weight) entitles him to be competitive off of todays mark if he can defy a long absence  – 1 point win @ 5/2”  WON 13/8

“At Ffos Las, Champers On Ice could be thrown in off of 132 if returning to the form of his Albert Bartlett third to Uknowwhatimeanharry and is worth taking a chance – 0.5 point win@ 4/1″  WON 6/4

Saturday 9th November

Bee Machine may be worth a punt at a big price. He ran better than the finishing position suggests last time out and, although he has a wide berth again, if he can get tucked in he has a chance and on that form shouldn’t be more than twice the price of Break The Silence – 1/2 point each-way @ 16/1″  WON 8/1

Thursday 7th November

“Sedgefield is the venue for the second advised bet as I like the look of the progressive Mah Mate Bob. His handicap win at the track was franked and he should come on a bundle for his comeback run – 1 point win @ 3/1″  WON 3/1

Monday 4th November

“The lightly-raced Flemensfirth gelding Cuban Pete was always likely to come into his own as a chaser and it may be worth taking a chance with him on his debut over the larger obstacles off of a mark of 109. A winner at the course over hurdles last time out he has proved he acts on the sharp track and goes to post with confidence despite a 10lb rise – 1/2 point win @ 5/1″  WON 6/1

Sunday 3rd November

“Bafana Blue – 1 point win @ 5/1” WON 9/2

May the odds be ever in your favour

A full spreadsheet with every advised bet is available on request (see “contact us”)


Year-to-date profit/loss:




Full year (to-date)

Advised stakes  +29.9 points;

BSP:  +17.2 points


March incl Cheltenham

Advised stakes  +22.9 points;

BSP:  +17.0 points



Advised stakes  +12.38 points;

BSP:  +7.99 points



Advised stakes  -5.40 points;

BSP:  -7.99

2019 Monthly breakdown:



Advised stakes  +19.4 points;




Advised stakes  +6.25 points;




Advised stakes  -7.77 points;




Advised stakes  -13.2 points;




Advised stakes  -10.3 points;




Advised stakes  +17.1 points;




Advised stakes  +9.25 points;




Advised stakes  +11.7 points;




Advised stakes  -35.5 points;




Advised stakes  -15.1 points;




Advised stakes  +4.28 points;




Advised stakes  -3.78 points;