Weighed In - Previous Results

Friday 12th August

Nottingham kicks-off with a fillies’ maiden and Ange De L’Amour is a standout pick. The Harry Angel filly has had three starts at the minimum trip and improved significantly at the track last time out when third beaten only 1½ lengths. The winner Dandy Alys was runner-up in the Sweet Solera Stakes next time out, so the form has some substance. The way that Ange De L’Amour has been finishing her racing suggests she should appreciate six furlongs – 1 point win”  WON 11/4

The 1m ½f nursery at Wolverhampton is the furthest I’ve seen two-year-olds go so far in the UK. Sweet Fortune has plenty of stamina in her pedigree and looks sure to appreciate a step up in trip.  Karl Burke’s filly was fourth in a similar grade nursery at Leicester on Sunday, beaten 2½ lengths, the third ran to a similar level at Ffos Las on Thursday and the fifth bolted up at Windsor on Monday. I have Moondial as a potential danger but, unlike the selection, I’m not sure she wants a trip at this stage 1 point win”  WON 9/2

Thursday 11th August

If Immortal Beauty takes to the artificial surface, she looks a standout pick in the nursery. After two starts at five-furlongs in May, the Cotai Glory filly was unlucky not to get off the mark when stepped up to six at Ffos Las and soon made amends when landing a fillies’ nursery at HQ at the end of last month. She has been raised 5lbs for the ½ length win, but the early signs are that the form is solid. On pedigree Immortal Beauty should improve for a further step up in trip to seven furlongs 1 point win”  WON 9/2

Saturday 6th August

Shergar Cup

Shergar Cup Dash favourite Arecibo is now nought from six at the track but boasts the best piece of CD form when second in last year’s Kings Stand. At the prices I just prefer Manaccan, who was only beaten a length in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse handicap, which is already working out well – ½ point win @ 4/1 (several firms)”  WON 7/2

in the Stayers Handicap Super Superjack was always likely to be a prohibitive price as he was an eye-catcher over a marathon trip at Goodwood last time out when not getting the best of runs. However, he’s going to be over-bet off the back of that and he’s up 4lbs putting him 11lbs higher than when winning an apprentice handicap over CD in May. I’m going to take a punt at a big price on Themaxwecan with form figures of -04000 this season! He has been running in the top staying handicaps and has now slipped to a mark 4lbs lower than his last win which was less than a year ago. Mark Johnston is notorious for revitalising out-of-form and exposed handicappers and he looks worth a speculative each-way bet ½ point each-way @ 20/1 (Bet365 4 places; 22/1 Betfred 3 places)”  WON 9/1

Plenty of good winning form on offer and I landed on an in-form filly Adaay In Asia. She got off the mark at Chepstow two starts back, that was only a 0-80 race, but she followed up at Goodwood in a better race, where she ran on nicely once in the clear. Adaay In Asia. Needs to improve again but she is on a roll and a bigger price than I expected – ½ point win @ 11/1 (Coral; 10/1 others)”  WON 4/1

Friday 5th August

The Friday evening card at HQ starts with a fillies’ novice and Thunder Star  is interesting. She won a novice event on debut at Haydock and followed up with a fourth in a hotter race at York next time out beaten 6¾ lengths but no chance with runaway winner The Platinum Queen. It looks worth trying her at six furlongs and she can concede the 6lbs all round. Brasilian Princess was only third on debut at Salisbury but Hannon’s no longer seem to be readied first time out so she should improve. Ed Walker’s Poetic Union was given a tough introduction when bumping into Marbaan at Salisbury when beaten only 3¾ lengths into fifth after dropping off in the final 110 yards, a drop back to six furlongs might suit and a repeat of that effort will see her go close under these terms – 1 point win @ 4/1 (several firms)”  WON 9/4

Wednesday 3rd August

Rocket Rod looks the best bet on the card in search of completing a hat-trick of course wins in what looks a modest race. Both wins were at a mile, but he travelled so well of a slow early pace last time out that a drop to seven furlongs should hold no fears. Rocket Rod won by ¾ length but was value for a good deal more than that and a further 5lbs rise should not be enough to halt his winning run – 1 point win @ 13/8  WON 2/1

Tuesday 2nd August 

The staying handicap at Chelmsford may prove to be a better race than a 0-70 heat as it has some progressive types. Haarar has already won in the grade after landing a Windor handicap over an extended eleven furlongs at Windsor in May. On the bare form, Michael Bell’s gelding was a shade disappointing when only third of five at Nottingham last time out when stepped up in grade and trip. Haarar was beaten six lengths in third but the first two have been in good form since, both have won and the winner Mostly Cloudy is now rated 22lbs higher. The selection is worth another try at the trip dropping back into 0-70 company – 1 point win @ 7/2 (several firms)”  WON 100/30

Monday 1st August

“I think my best chance of a winner at Ripon is Aleezdancer in the feature. The gelding is dropping back to six furlongs for the first time since beating Lethal Levi in a Pontefract nursery last October. He hasn’t been disgraced at seven furlongs plus, but it looks worth a go dropping back to six, and any further rain would be a bonus – 1 point win @ 4/1″  WON 9/4

“Nicola Currie has an interesting ride in the next with top-weight Innse Gall who is of interest dropping into this grade since winning at Ayr a year ago. The gelding is only 1lb higher than when third in the Cumberland Plate in June, neaten ¾ length and a repeat of that effort against this opposition should see him in the winners’ enclosure again despite the poor form of Iain Jardine – 1 point win @ 11/4″  WON 11/4

Friday 29th July

I advised a speculative punt on Bayside Boy in the St James Place at 40/1 where he belied his odds beaten two lengths into seventh, a neck behind Berkshire Shadow. He ran on well once out in the clear and, although that proves he is not quite up to Group 1 level, he should be capable of making his presence felt in the group 3 Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (2:25). However, I’m going to take a chance on the German raider Rocchigiani. The son of Time Test found only Maljoom too good in the German 2,000 Guineas before the Haggas colt was unlucky not to win the St James Palace. Rocchigiani was then a staying on fifth in the Jersey Stakes and looks sure to benefit from a step back up to a mile. I’m convinced that if he had Gosden or Appleby next to his name instead of Schiergen, he would be half the price and he looks worth a bet:

Goodwood 2:25 – ROCCHIGIANI – 1 point win @ 13/2 (several firms) – WON 11/2


Saturday 18th June

With Aiden O’Brien having won four of the last six renewals, its not a surprise that ALFRED MUNNINGS is odds-on to land the opener. The Dubawi colt won his only start, a Leopardstown maiden, easily by 4½ lengths and is not one to be taking on with confidence. Ballydoyle won the 2017 renewal with the filly September, the Johnston team are attempting to pull off a repeat for the fillies with LAKOTA SIOUX and she looks the over-priced alternative to the favourite. She was only third on debut but put the experience to good use when bolting-up at Lingfield next time out, the runner-up has franked the form since. There was some juice in the ground that day, certainly easier then the official good, so with little rain forecast there is a question mark over the ground, but Lakota Sioux looks worth a bet – ½ point each-way @ 33/1  3rd 33/1

In the staying handicap at HQ BAGUE D’OR returns to the scene of his win last August. That victory was on fast ground, and he encounters similar conditions for the first time since then. The gelding is still relatively lightly raced and progressive, he shaped encouragingly on seasonal debut on the Rowley Mile course when runner-up over 1½m – winner runs Goodwood Friday – if Bague D’or copes with the extra quarter mile he can go well here – 1 point win”  WON 7/2

Friday 17th June

CANDLEFORD is a single-figure price despite making his seasonal debut, but he won first time out last term and Haggas is exceptional at readying one for a target. He was first-past-the-post over CD in September but disqualified when his rider weighed in light, the manner of his victory suggests he would have won easily with the missing weight cloth. Candleford was beaten by Stay Well at Kempton and re-opposes on almost identical terms, but that was a messy six-runner heat, he was held up out the back and poorly positioned when the pace quickened, and he was outpaced. It appeared that a stronger all-round gallop would have suited, and he is sure to get that here, I think he could go off favourite and he gets the nod – 1 point win @ 7/1″  WON 11/2

Having stated the case for No Nay Never progeny at the Berkshire track, CADAMOSTO is huge if he can return to the form of his fourth in last year’s Norfolk when fourth to Go Bears Go and Perfect Power. He has to leave behind two abject performances this season, but 50/1 each-way is worth taking with a return to Ascot and likely truly run race ¼ point each-way @ 50/1”  4th 40/1

I decided not to bet on the ante-post market as I had very little between the two O’Brien fillies MEDITATE and Statuette, so as Aiden himself would say, I’m delighted that Statuette is being re-routed. Meditate has won both her starts, a maiden at the Curragh in April and a group 3 at Naas over 6f. Progeny of No Nay Never perform particularly well at Ascot, Little Big Bear being the latest example. I have her a few pounds ahead of the best of the favourite, MAWJ, though she has scope for further improvement – 1 point win @ 11/4”  WON 5/2

Thursday 16th June

Favourite SEA SILK ROAD created a good impression when slamming a subsequent winner by 5½ lengths at Nottingham first time out. She was more workmanlike when following up at Goodwood, but that might have been due to the soft ground. Jessie Harrington has a good line into the value of the form as she saddled the third, Viareggio, and re-opposes the favourite with MAGICAL LAGOON. The daughter of Galileo won the group 3 Flame Of Tara Stakes last August and found only Concert Hall too good on her seasonal debut, before that filly placed in the Irish 1,000 and Oaks – 1 point win”  WON 11/4

Wednesday 15th June

I have favourite LITTLE BIG BEAR as a clear top-rated runner, he impressed on second start when winning a Naas maiden by an easy three lengths, that performance fared well against the clock. My only concern is that both runs to date have been with ease in the ground, so good-to-firm is an unknown, and stall two might be a disadvantage – 1 point win @ 5/2”  WON 6/5

Royal Hunt Cup – With hindsight, ASTRO KING was given an impossible task trying to concede 7lbs to Real World when runner0-up in the 2021 renewal, particularly as the pair raced on separate sides of the track. While Real World has gone on to be a group two winner, Astro King is attempting to go one better on a 4lbs higher rating. It’s easy to forgive his seasonal debut when only ninth in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time out as he was poorly positioned throughout and denied a clear run near the finish. DARK SHIFT was a nice winner for us at Nottingham last time out and is now 2-2 over a mile after he had run well in the Victoria Cup at Ascot first time out. Dark Shift is three from five at the Berkshire track and has a favourite’s chance despite a 7lbs rise for the Nottingham win – ASTRO KING [4th 17/2]– ½ point win @ 15/2 (several firms); Ascot 5:00 – DARK SHIFT – ½ point win @ 10/1″ (generally)”  WON 13/2

Tuesday 14th June

I have BLACKBEARD ahead on the form that the Irish juveniles have shown so far and four of the last renewals have gone to Ireland, three to AO’B. Joint favourite, PERSIAN FORCE, is close to topping the ratings for the British contingent. However, the runner I have as over-priced is BRADSELL for Archie Watson. The son of Tasleet made his racecourse debut at York last month in a six-furlong novice, he attracted strong support prior to the race and destroyed his rivals. It wasn’t the strongest of races for the track, but it had more depth than what has been suggested. Obviously, some of the runners can improve past him, but on what we have seen so far, Bradsell has performed the best and if he was trained by one of the top yards, he would be close to being favourite – ½ point each-way @ 8/1  WON 8/1

Saturday 11th June

In the staying handicap that ends the card High Wells is interesting for leading NH trainer Fergal O’Brien. He doesn’t have many miles on the clock for an eight-year-old and has been in the first two in nine of his nineteen starts on turf flat. The gelding is back on his last winning mark and although that was on the AW, it was a better race than this. High Wells appeared to be back to form last time out on his third start for O’Brien when runner-up over two miles at Nottingham trying to concede a stone to the 13/8 favourite, the third won by five lengths next time out – 1 point win @ 5/1”  WON 13/2

Sunday 22nd May

I can’t help thinking that Showtime Mahomes is too big at York (4:35). The gelding was a useful two-year-old including a decent run in the Super Sprint. He showed that he has trained on with an excellent third in a better race than this at the Dante meeting. He races off the same mark here and while he’s not proven at six-furlongs, his running style suggests it will suit – ½ point each-way @ 20/1 – 6 places (Bet365; 18/1 others)  WON 12/1

Highlight on the card at Nottingham is the 0-110 handicap over the extended mile. Most of the contenders appear to be at their limit regarding their current marks, but Dark Shift finished last season with two wins and may still be improving. He ran better than his finishing position suggests in the Victoria Cup earlier this month as he was trapped widest from his low draw when there appeared to be a track or pace bias stands side. Dark Shift faded late on finishing eleventh but only beaten 6¼ lengths, slightly outpaced over the seven furlongs and a step back up to a mile should suit. Austrian Theory hasn’t won since racecourse debut but drops into handicap company on a mark of [97] having been campaigned in pattern races until now 1 point win @ 11/4” – WON 3/1

Saturday 21st May

Later on the Curragh card I do like one in the ten-furlong handicap. Mashhoor is one of the ex-Shadwell horses sold out of the Stoute yard and was acquired by Johnny Murtagh for 40,000gns. He shaped encouragingly on stable debut when fourth of seventeen at Cork last month. That was his first start for 256 days and after being gelded. He looked like playing a part in the finish until tiring late on and should be spot-on for today, any further ease in the ground would be a concern so I will halve stakes – ½ point win @ 9/1 (several firms)  WON 7/1

Tuesday 17th May

In the fillies’ handicap at Nottingham I like Yummylicious who ran well in a novice event at Beverley last time out. Prior to that, on her seasonal and handicap debut she refused to settle in a filles’ handicap at Windsor and finished fourth. On the face of it that was disappointing, but four of her seven rivals have won since and a mark of [76] looks winnable for the daughter of Dubawi – 1 point win @ 11/4 (generally)”  WON 9/4

Saturday 14th May

The London Gold Cup Handicap is usually one of the strongest handicaps of its type pre-Ascot, and this looks another decent renewal. I usually want to take on the fav in such races, but I want to be with Israr. John Gosden’s colt won a valuable Doncaster maiden on his racecourse debut before getting beat in a Salisbury novice on soft ground next time out. His mare is the Oaks and King George heroine Taghrooda so he is expected to have bags of stamina. He ran promisingly on seasonal reappearance at Newmarket, where he was reportedly “burly enough in the paddock”. Israr is expected to come on bundles for that run and I expect him to progress beyond a mark of [87] – 1 point win @ 9/2 (generally)”  WON 3/1

Mark Loughnan appears to have found an ideal opportunity for Bookmark to resume winning ways in the apprentice handicap at Doncaster. The filly won twice last season, both in ten-furlong handicaps, and showed first time out that she retains the ability to be competitive off her current mark when third at Pontefract despite racing too keenly 1 point win”  WON 4/1

Friday 13th May

In the seven-furlong handicap for 3-y-o at Newmarket, Royal Musketeer looks to have gone under the radar. He was beaten 1¼ lengths into fifth in a 0-85 at Doncaster which is working out as decent form and with hindsight the gelding may have been fortunate to get dropped 1lb – 1 point win”  WON 15/2

Thursday 12th May

Bolthole ran well after a long absence at Sandown last time out where he caught the eye travelling nicely into contention before tiring understandably late on and looked a winner waiting to happen. Market rival Haunted Dream looks vulnerable in search of a hat-trick up in the weights and grade – 1 point win @ 9/4”  WON 11/8

Saturday 7th May

In the opener at Ascot Mascat was favourite on early tissues after his encouraging run in Epsom’s Great Metropolitan Handicap, where he went down narrowly with Solent Getaway a neck behind in third [unplaced in the Chester Cup on Friday]. The former Ralph Beckett inmate should go well again. However, I’m going to take a chance on Juan De Montalban who also shaped encouragingly on seasonal debut and first start for Kevin Philippart De Foy. The form of that Thirsk race is working out really well, with the second, third and fifth all having won since, while the winner was runner-up next time out. I expect Juan De Montalban to improve for better ground and he looks to be a bit of value – 1 point each-way @ 10/1  WON 7/1

I wonder if After The Rain has got off lightly with a 3lbs rise for her Windsor win as the placed horses all ran well next time out. The Sharmadal filly won cosily at Windsor and should go well if she acts on the anticipated quicker ground – 1 win @ 5/4 (generally)”  WON 6/5

It’s been a good week for Derby trials and next up is Lingfield’s version. Aiden O’Briens three-year-old colts have all been big improvers for a run and a step up in trip at Chester, and United Nations is expected to do the same after an encouraging seasonal debut at Epsom last time out. The Galileo colt is expected to progress for middle-distances, although stamina is not guaranteed on pedigree. I am surprised that Walk Of Stars is odds-on as his narrow win in a three-runner conditions race at Newbury has already been let down by the placed horses, and it looks like worth sticking with Ballydoyle – 1 point win @ 9/2 (generally) [10p rule 4]”  WON 9/4

Friday 6th May

Hugo Palmer has already shown that he is targeting Chester from his new base just down the road and can add to his tally this week with Flaming Rib. The colt had a productive two-year-old campaign winning five races including his last four starts. His sole start this season was in the group 3 Greenham Stakes and back in handicap company he can exploit his good draw (2) and importantly he acts on any going – 1 point win @ 11/4 (several firms)”  WON 6/4

The concluding middle-distance handicap for three-year-olds is another potentially good betting race on the card. Favourite Temple Of Artemis stills holds a Derby entry (as well as Irish Guineas!). He ran well in a ten-furlong Leopardstown maiden won by Boundless Ocean and has plenty of stamina in his pedigree – 1 point win @ 5/2 (several firms)”  WON 9/4

Friday 29th April

In notching a five-timer in the autumn, Raasel rose 21lbs in the ratings. He shaped encouragingly on seasonal debut at Musselburgh. He did get trapped out wide a low draw but showed enough to suggest he can be competitive off a career-high mark ½ point win @ 6/1 (several firms)WON 11/4

Thursday 28th April

I’m surprised that Roudemental is not favourite for the mile three-year-old handicap at Redcar on his debut for Hugo Palmer. He looks to have a lenient opening mark [73] based on his last turf start at Thirsk, in what looks an above average novice stakes. The three ahead of him that day were: Mythical Dancer [87], Tuscan [105] and Sharvara [79]. Roudemental backed that up with a decent second at Wolverhampton in November and, with a middle-distance pedigree, a step up to a mile is expected to suit 1 point win @ 4/1 (Bet365; 7/2 generally)”  WON 7/2

Saturday 23rd April

Low-key but competitive racing at Haydock, in the 0-70 six-furlong handicap (1:30) I’m taking a chance on Dream Together to reverse last time out places with After John. Dream Together is now 4lbs below his last win a year ago in a 0-80 at Thirsk and has run better than the bare form of his last three runs suggest. He did well to finish fourth at Thirsk, when After John was second, last time out as he tracked across to the stands side from a low draw and with hindsight, he would have been better off staying where he was. Three starts back, the race in-between being a failed attempt at 7f, did well to finish third at Pontefract after going too hard up front and again being poorly positioned. The Dream Ahead gelding can win off his current mark at this level – 1 point win @5/1”  WON 100/30

In the last at Leicester, I’m keen on Roger Varian’s Kitsune Power on seasonal debut. He caught the eye as a juvenile when performing well while still looking green in three starts. On his second start he was a close fourth at Ffos Las, beaten only 1½ lengths by the (amended) winner Evocative Spark, who bolted-up at Beverley on Thursday off [78] and an opening mark of [73] for Kitsune Power suggests he is well-treated – 1 point win @ 9/2 (generally)”  WON 7/2

I quite fancy Greaneteen to win back-to-back renewals of the Celebration Chase, having beaten Altior last year, obviously he was past his best at the time, but connections were confident going into the race. Greaneteen emphasised ed his likening for the track when winning the Tingle Creek in December beating Nube Negra. I don’t really understand why the Skelton horse is favourite, he was beaten on his only other visit to the Esher course. Statistically Greaneteen is a better horse on better ground, and it is easy to forgive his run at Leopardstown as most of the yard’s runners were under-performing at the time – 1 point win @ 13/8 (generally)”  WON 11/8

Friday 22nd April

In the last at Doncaster, I’m going to take on the favourite and top-weight, War Horse. There are several rivals in the field with middle-distance pedigrees that have yet to race beyond a mile. One of those is Wootton’Sun, who showed a good level of form in novice races from 6f-1m in his three two-year-old starts last year before he was beaten 3¼ lengths in a decent York nursery at the back end of last year when he ruined his chance by pulling too hard in good-to-soft ground. He should be able to leave a mark of [74] behind him stepping up in trip for his three-year-old campaign. – 1/2 point win”  WON 9/1

Easter Monday 18th April

One of interest at Redcar, Il Bandito who was sent for home a long way out on seasonal debut and his first start for James Horton. That was over a mile at the track, both wins have come over seven furlongs and a drop back in trip should be appreciated – 1 point win”  WON 11/4

Friday 8th April

It doesn’t look a great renewal of the Sefton with none of the placed horses from the Albert Bartlett taking their chance in the Aintree equivalent. Green Book and Stag Horn are the only representatives from the race, and both have an outside chance. Banbridge looks an opposable favourite, a Cheltenham winner of the conditionals’ race, but he only carried 11-3 and the race did fall apart with some early casualties. Runner-up that day was Cobbler’s Dream receiving 1lb, who had won the Lanzarote Hurdle in January when Gelino Bello was fourth conceding 8lbs. Admittedly he was beaten seven lengths (on soft ground), but the form of his maiden win at the track worked out and, with the likely better going, he could go well – 1 point win @ 6/1 (several firms)”  WON 7/2

Thursday 7th April

David Pipe has suddenly hit form with 37% strike rate over the last fortnight, and Kolisi looks pretty much a good thing at Taunton. The gelding got off the mark over hurdles at Hereford last week, where the improvement in form was explained as he had benefitted from wind surgery, he has a 7lbs penalty for the win, but ran from 6lbs out of the handicap that day so effectively has 1lb penalty – 1 point win @ 5/4 (Bet365 & Hills)”  WON 8/11

Pipe can complete a double later on the card with Red Happy who also carries a 7lbs penalty for a win last week. He beat stablemate Abaya Du Mathan at Wincanton with the par forty-five lengths ahead of the remainder and can double up dropping in grade with Philip Armson keeping the ride and again claiming 7lbs – 1 point win @ 9/4”  WON 9/4

Saturday 2nd April

At Ayr, Dusart is set to contest the Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase  conceding weight all round and therefore has attracted eight rivals. He wasn’t disgraced in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase last time out where he was up against it on ratings. Dusart should improve for that effort on better ground. Based on his bumper and hurdles form, a mark of [147] shouldn’t be too punitive and he can defy top-weight – 1 point win @ 2/1”  WON 2/1

In the Future Champion Novices’ Chase I landed on Do Your Job for Michael Scudamore. The gelding has come up short at the top level of novice chasers but has come up against Arkle winner Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki. Last time out he conceded weight all round to some experienced handicappers when winning a 0-140 event at Newcastle in February. Do Your Job was beaten 1¼ length by Belfast Banter in last year’s Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, and that is arguably the best piece of form on offer here 1 point win @ 9/4 (several firms)”  WON 11/8

Friday 1st April

In the last, Blairgowrie looks more than capable of landing a 0-115 handicap hurdle for the Henderson and De Boinville partnership. A useful bumper horse placed twice behind Black Poppy and Might I, he has placed in all three hurdles starts all on soft ground. He found only a well-handicapped teenager too good at Wincanton last time out in testing conditions and, like many of the stable’s runners, can improve with a sounder surface. Blairgowrie has plenty of stamina in his pedigree and should appreciate the three-mile test – 1 point win @ 3/1 (generally; BetVictor 100/30) [10p Rule 4]”  WON 2/1

Thursday 31st March

In the feature race on the card the Lewis Badges Limited Handicap Chase, I’m going to take on the favourite Prince Escalus with the outsider of the five, Riko Boy. The gelding is 15lbs above his sole win in Market Rasen 0-120 Handicap Chase which he won in a canter. He was set to finish ahead of Monsieur Lecoq at Ascot over two miles a year ago, and that one has form lines that tie in with several of the rivals here. Last time out he was given a runout in a novice hurdle and with Dr Newland in flying form, he looks worth taking a chance with – 1 point win @ 15/2″  WON 9/1

Friday 25th March

At Hereford, the obvious one in the mares’ handicap hurdle (2:45) is Flying Nun who has improved with each of five hurdles starts, stepping up in trip on each occasion. She stayed on strongly to win by a neck at Taunton last time out, despite giving lumps of weight away to the placed horses. That was a 0-100 race, and she steps up in grade, with another 5lbs and encountering a sound surface for the first time. So, she may be worth taking on with Go Chique, a former bumper winner got off the mark over hurdles at the fifth attempt on her first start at three miles. She hasn’t been able to back up that effort in four attempts under a conditional rider. Encouraging that she should get decent ground again and Nico de Boinville returns to ride – 1 point win @ 6/1 (Bet365; 9/2 Hills)”  WON 5/2

Thursday 24th March

I’m not sure ow many class 2 events they have at Sedgefield in a season but the WF-Racing Keeping You On Course Handicap Hurdle is a rare one. Last year’s renewal was won by Ashington who returns to defend his crown on a 2lbs lower mark. Brian Ellison’s gelding has been mixing chasing and hurdling since and returned to form at Kelso last time out when fourth but only beaten by 3¼ lengths. That race was officially the same grade as today’s event but that looked above par with the average rating of the contestants being [124] compared with [118] here. Furthermore, two winners have already emerged from the Kelso race to boost the form and I expect Ashington to go off favourite 1 point win @ 5/2″  WON 6/5

Tuesday 22nd March

The novice Moroder is attempting a four-timer and two of his three wins were at the course. He beat De Young Warrior last time out by 8 ½ lengths and a 6lbs rise may not be enough to halt his progression – 1 point win”  WON 11/4

Friday 18th March – Cheltenham Gold Cup

A Plus Tard – aiming to go one better than his 1¼ length defeat to Minella Indo last year. Being another year older at the age of eight he should be in his prime. A Plus Tard was third to Min and Saint Calvados in the 2020 Ryanair, has been campaigned successfully and almost exclusively at three miles since. He looked as good as ever when winning the Betfair Chase in a canter, although the race did fall apart. Disappointing next time out when beaten a short-head by Galvin in the Savills Chase over Christmas. The De Bromhead horses were completely out of form and even allowing for the emergence of Galvin, the proximity of Kemboy and Melon convinces me that that wasn’t A Plus Tard’s true running. Currently disputing favouritism, he looks set for another bold show – 1 point win @ 3/1  WON 3/1

Wednesday 16th March

“[X-Country is] certainly not my area of expertise but it does usually seem that having performed well on the track is a big advantage. I don’t believe that Tiger Roll is too old as a 12-y-o and if he is fit and well, he looks unopposable. Despite the importance of course form, I think stablemate Delta Work is the each-way angle, as he is the class act – 1/2 point wach-way @ 6/1”  WON 5/2

Saturday 5th March

There’s a good quality card at Kelso with three of ten races due to be screened on ITV, and Famous Bridge is on a retrieval mission having looked like the most likely winner in a similar race last month, when jumping awkwardly and unseating Brian Hughes two out. Although officially the same grade, this looks a tougher assignment, but Famous Bridge was looking set for a higher rise than 1lb before the error and, with the yard in good form, he looks the play – 1 point win @ 3/1”  WON 15/8

Friday 4th March

“Plenty of unexposed types in the Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (1:45) that kicks-off Newbury’s Friday card. Shearer looked a potentially decent hurdling prospect when he won a Warwick bumper … he has improved with each hurdles start on varying types of ground conditions. He was beaten two lengths in the Winter Million Novices’ Handicap Hurdle at Lingfield last time out in testing ground over 2m 3½f. Global Agreement looked likely to play a part in the finish before falling two out, and he has subsequently won. Main market rival, Neon Moon, won impressively at Plumpton, but has a 7lbs rise to overcome and has to prove that the blinkers worn for the first time on that occasion continue to have a positive effect [last of 7 finishers]1 point win”  WON 3/1

Monsieur Lecoq looks nap material in the two-mile handicap chase (4:35) having slipped to a mark of [128] from a peak hurdles mark of [151] and looking back to form when runner-up at Hereford last time out. That was on decent ground, but he has finished in the frame in 11 of 15 starts in soft/heavy 1 point win @ 5/2”  WON 5/2

Thursday 3rd March

Another one I’ve tipped before and in another mares’ race, MOLLY CAREW goes in the Mares’ Handicap Chase at Taunton. The ten-year-old has been a bit disappointing this season, but she has everything in place for a bold show here. Track, trip, grade and going are all ideal for when she s performs to her best and her new mark [111] is 6lbs below her last winning one. Her main market rival, Grand Turina is weighted to her best and looks to have peaked this season. Her best efforts recently have been with a conditional claiming 10lbs, so she looks up against with Charlie Deutsch back in the saddle – 1 point win @ 2/1 (25p/£ rule 4)”  WON 8/11

Saturday 26th February

Paul Nicholls has won eleven of the last fifteen runnings of the Pendil Novices’ Chase and has a good chance of completing the dozen with Pic D’Orhy. He is the clear top-rated of the quintet, 7lbs above Minella Drama. Pic D’Orhy was beaten thirty-two lengths into third in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase, but that run can be marked up as he probably paid a price for trying to take on easy winner L’Homme Presse. Prior to that he won a grade 2 novice chase at Ascot, admittedly a moderate race for the grade, but had the class to win a Betfair Hurdle and he will be difficult to beat 1 point win”  WON 3/1

Thursday 24th February

With genuine soft ground at Huntingdon I have a confident selection in the first with PILSDON PEN. Jeremy Scott is in flying form and his gelding is improving with racing over obstacles. A win on soft ground at Wincanton last month was followed with a decent second at Fontwell last week when beaten ½ length with the front two sixteen lengths clear of the field. He’s due to go up another 5lbs for that effort, so is officially well in here – 1 point win @ 9/4 (generally; Bet365 11/4)WON 13/8

Tuesday 22nd February

Highlight of the Taunton fixture is the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Handicap Hurdle and it sees the return of Langer Dan who won the Imperial Cup for us last year. However, I have to question if he is a trier on this occasion, Dan Skelton said last week: “He was second in the race last year to a Grade 1 horse in Galopin Des Champs, so we’ll go back there and hope not to run into a Grade 1 horse this time. He’ll run soon and we may or may not take in the Imperial Cup which he won last year.” He is now rated [140] and was second in the Cheltenham race off [135] so why on earth would Skelton want to win this and see his mark to go up? If he’s concerned about there being “a grade 1 horse in the race” then Langer Dan is already vulnerable on [140] against some unexposed Irish novices [last of six 15/2 > 4/1].  Take a chance with AJERO. Kim Bailey’s gelding is back on his last winning mark [134] when he completed a four-timer. He was outclassed when running in the Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. He has disappointed in two starts this campaign, but his last run can be marked-up as the form is looking strong. He should have ideal conditions if it’s good-to-soft and can go well at a price – 1 point win @ 9/1*”  WON 11/4 [*10p/£ rule 4]

Saturday 19th February

The feature race is the Ascot Chase which is unusual grade 1 as only 7lbs covers seven of the eight declared runners, with only Two For Gold 10lbs of the top-rated Fakir D’oudairies, but still a lively outsider. Fakir D’oudairies’ strike rate in chases of four from fifteen is not encouraging, but that is harsh on him as he has been chasing Allaho and Chacun Pour Soi over an inadequate two miles in most of those. This intermediate trip on soft ground looks ideal for Joseph O’Brien’s gelding and he looks the most likely winner – 1 point win @ 5/2”  WON 9/4

Saturday 12th February

At Uttoxeter, a rare odds-on bet and even more unusual with it being a chase. I just think Zambella wins the Virgin Bet Mares’ Chase with a clear round. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ mare has won two similar races already this season, including a defeat of Annie Mc at Aintree in December. She found one too good at Leicester last time out, but that was back at two miles on quicker ground. Pink Legend is the obvious danger, but the level of her form doesn’t seem to have been at the same level as Zambella, and I can’t see her being good enough to beat the favourite. Belle De Manech has already let us down this season and is up against it on ratings – 1 point win @ 5/6”  WON 4/7

Friday 11th February

TIGERTEN was entitled to need his hurdles debut in January having been off the track since the summer. I thought he travelled better than any of his rivals that day before looking tired and would have finished closer than ten lengths if he hadn’t made a bad blunder at the last: – 1 point win @ 6/1”  WON 5/1

Staying at Kempton Park, there may only be four runners for the Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase but all the quartet have some sort of chance. However, I am giving a chance to Elixir De Nutz who narrowly got off the mark over fences at Plumpton last time out. Colin Tizzard’s gelding looks to have plenty of scope on a mark of [135] as he was rated in the 150’s as a hurdler after winning the Tolworth Hurdle. The drop back in trip and better ground are expected to be in his favour and he looks worth backing – 1 point win”  WON 2/1 

Thursday 10th February

The listed Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle is the feature on the card, the 2020 renewal was won by Shishkin prior to winning the Supreme. This looks a decent renewal despite only five declared, Elle Est Belle, the only mare in the line-up stands out for me. Dan Skelton’s mare was only seven lengths behind Sir Gerhard in last year’s champion bumper and got off the mark at the second time of asking over hurdles in a listed mares’ race at Newbury. Last time out she was thrown in the deep end against Jonbon at Ascot where she wasn’t disgraced in fourth. I expect her to develop into a lively outsider for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the festival. She is yet to race beyond two miles, but on form and pedigree she looks to be crying out for further and I expect her to capture this en-route to better things – 1 point win @ 2/1”  WON 15/8

Sunday 6th February – Dublin Racing Festival

Birchdale is in interesting runner in the Bulmers Secret Orchard Leopardstown Handicap Chase. His chase mark is now 15lbs below his hurdle rating, which was earned when competitive in the Coral Cup with Nicky Henderson. On the face of it, he is 4lbs out-of-the-handicap at bottom weight but Mark McDonagh claiming 7lbs, he gets to race of a competitive mark. Unfortunately, he has been backed from double-figures in the last few days, and 6/1 is a borderline price but acceptable – 1 point win @ 6/1”  WON 9/2

Saturday 5th February

I put up Green Book when a non-runner for the Lanzarote last month when he was unlucky to unseat as he was unable to avoid a faller early in the race and he can go well in the Heroes Handicap Hurdle. The versatile gelding won the Chester Plate in May and ran well at Ascot and Goodwood. The son of Authorized has taken well to hurdles. He won a 0-120 amateur riders handicap hurdle at Ludlow, prior to the misfortune at Kempton, and that form could be under-estimated as the form has been boosted several times already and he’s worth another chance – 1 point win @ 13/2 (Bet365; 6/1 generally)”  WON 6/1

Saturday 29th January

The last time that Imperial Alcazar ran over an intermediate trip at the track he was beaten a head by Protektorat in a novice hurdle. He hasn’t really got his act together in two chase starts, but if he can improve on his fencing he looks potentially well treated. 1 point win WON 9/1

I think the going may have gone against several in the Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase and there could be some withdrawals (Farinet was a non-runner twice last year when the going was “good” [non-runner]. Magic Saint is back on a tempting mark, but his best efforts have been at shorter trips. I quite like the two novices Jacamar and Torn And Freyed…I’m tempted to ignore the last rune of Torn And Freyed over a longer trip in testing conditions as his earlier form leaves him on a tempting [131] ½ point win”  WON 5/1

A bit of an obvious one, but Funambule Sivola looks a standout pick at Doncaster. The seven-year-old is 11lbs higher than when slamming Monsieur Lecoq by a distance at Ascot last March, but since then he’s finished second to Shishkin in the Maghull and found only First Flow to good in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. It is interesting that he is stepping back to two miles having disappointed under a big weight in a 2½m handicap at Cheltenham’s New Years Day meeting. His second to Shishkin does flatter him as the race fell apart but Funambule Sivola but connections look to have found an ideal opportunity to return to winning ways 1 point win @ 13/8  WON 5/4

Thursday 20th January

At Wincanton, IMPHAL catches the eye as he ran an extraordinary race at Ascot last time out and can be considered unlucky not to have won when second. He was beaten by a heavily backed rival.  IMPHAL was so badly hampered at the first flight that he did well to stand up, and it was remarkable that he managed to get back into contention and beat the rest of a decent field. He could still be on a winning mark based on his best flat form. The downside is that it was such a good effort that he’s not been missed in the market – 1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 10/11

Saturday 15th January

WONDER STARELZAAM bumped into one last time out when second to Internationalangel who raced off [68] and is now [92]. Denis Coakley’s gelding was 9lbs well in on that occasion, so life will be tougher off a revised [60]. However, the form of that Lingfield race has been boosted by many in behind and he may have scope off a new mark. A bigger concern is that he was far too keen on that occasion and a step up to a mile may not be ideal 1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 13/8

Saturday 8th January

It’s rare for Newcastle to host a winter fixture where the ground isn’t too testing. BAVINGTON BOB looks to have been given a good chance of repeating a CD success last time out having been raised 1lb for that win. Prior to that he was second to a winner that followed up in style next time out. Anne Hamilton’s gelding looks to have scope for further improvement over fences – 1 point win @ 2/1″  WON 13/8

Sunday 2nd January

There are a few of interest at Ayr mainly SHE’SASUPERMACK in the last. CLAN LEGEND is a worthy favourite, but I feel he is worth taking on at 11/8. The veteran has been a good servant to connections having won eleven of thirty-eight starts but has not won off a mark as high as [137] and is yet to win beyond 2½m, albeit from only two starts. CLAN LEGEND ran on well over CD in November when finishing third, but SHE’SASUPERMACK looked book for at least second on that occasion and I can’t fathom the price discrepancy between the two. The other nine-year-old, RATH AN LUIR, is a big danger to the pair if he is fit enough after more than a year off the track 1 point win @ 9/2 (Hills; 7/2 several firms)”  WON 2/1 Fav

New Year’s Day 2022

At Exeter, LE MILOS makes plenty of appeal in the staying handicap having ran well in a similar race over CD in November. He found one too good on that occasion but that was only his fourth start over fences. That was his first start after a long layoff, and he is entitled to come on for the run on going that should be ideal – 1 point win”  WON 15/2

Boxing Day

The seven-furlong handicap (3:35) is a competitive heat. The immediate one to look at is the progressive TRUMBLE who is going for a four-timer having notched a hat-trick from a range of [78] to [92] and is attempting to win off a revised mark [100] and has sound claims. MISTY GREY won last year’s renewal of the race and is attempting to retain it off a 4lbs higher mark. He has a good chance of doing so as his best effort to-date was in a FTQ at Lingfield. He’s had two starts this autumn after a long break and warmed up nicely with a second in a Kempton listed event last time out, he looks primed to score again – 1 point win @ 100/30”  WON 9/4

I’m keen to back CAILIN DEARG… clearly a progressive mare as she raced only seven times and has won in three different disciplines: points, bumpers and hurdles. With that cv she is destined to be a smart chaser but can follow-up over timber having won over CD earlier in the month. I expect her to defy a 6lbs rise effectively dropping in grade. Her main rival, SHOESHINE BOY, put in his best effort to-date the price is good for the selection – 1 point win @ 7/2 (with rule 4)”  WON 2/1

May the odds be ever in your favour

A full spreadsheet with every advised bet is available on request (see “contact us”)

 

Year-to-date profit/loss:

 

2020

 

Full year (to-date)

Advised stakes  +29.9 points;

BSP:  +17.2 points

 

March incl Cheltenham

Advised stakes  +22.9 points;

BSP:  +17.0 points

 

February

Advised stakes  +12.38 points;

BSP:  +7.99 points

 

January

Advised stakes  -5.40 points;

BSP:  -7.99




2019 Monthly breakdown:

 

January

Advised stakes  +19.4 points;

 

February

 

Advised stakes  +6.25 points;

 

March

 

Advised stakes  -7.77 points;

 

April

 

Advised stakes  -13.2 points;

 

May

 

Advised stakes  -10.3 points;

 

June

 

Advised stakes  +17.1 points;

 

July

 

Advised stakes  +9.25 points;

 

August

 

Advised stakes  +11.7 points;

 

September

 

Advised stakes  -35.5 points;

 

October

 

Advised stakes  -15.1 points;

 

November

 

Advised stakes  +4.28 points;

 

December

 

Advised stakes  -3.78 points;