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LATEST RESULTS...FLAT 2019...c40 bets so far...

 

Wednesday 9th May

 

In the first, the Lily Agnes for 2-y-o, it does appear that the draw hasn’t been kind to those with arguably the best form – Show Me Show Me and Electric Ladyland - with the exception of Great Dame (1:50) who has trap 3 and got away well when winning last time out and she has a five stall advantage over the favourite. Great Dame – 1 point win @ 9/2 (Chester 1:50) – WON 7/2 (r4)

 

Saturday 27th April (only 4 bets)

 

"Sucellus is odds-on based on AW form and worth opposing on fast ground with Laafy who looks sure to show improvement stepped up in trip: 1 point win @ 5/1"  WON 7/2

 

"I do think that Making Miracles should be fav ahead of stable companion Lucky Deal. Highly tried in the past, he ran well behind another stable companion last weekend and can reverse Chelmsford form back on turf – 1 point win @ *100/30"  WON 11/10

* 5p/£ rule 4 deduction 

 

Wednesday 24th April

 

"Soto Sizzler was progressive last season when winning a class 2 at Goodwood off of 79 but he then failed to handle heavy ground at Haydock which may have taken its toll on him when disappointing in his final start of the season. He was entitled to need his first run this campaign when running a very encouraging race in the Rosebery Handicap which is looking decent form and he handily got dropped a 1lb. Having won at Goodwood I’d be confident of him handling Epsom’s undulations and I expect a big run. I didn’t expect him to be 100/30 fav in a competitive looking Great Metopolitan. One who may have been under-estimated in the market is Eddystone Rock, on the face of it he’s completely exposed nut he only went up 3lb for winning first time out and on the best of his form and likely to have ideal conditions"

 

Soto Sizzler – 1 point win @ 7/2  WON 11/4

Eddystone Rock - 1/2 point @ 15/2  2nd 6/1

 

"Just That Lord (Epsom) looks too big to me at 13/2 and has tempted me in. There was little between a few of these over CD in the Dash on Derby day last year but Just That Lord should be marked up finishing third from trap 1 when there was a clear advantage in a high draw. He re-opposes Dark Shot on slightly worse terms before Theodore Ladd’s 5lb claim but at the prices he’s worth taking a chance - 1 point win @ 13/2"   WON 5/1

 

Monday 8th April

 

"In the Windsor finale I like the look of Lethal Missile who has a progressive profile and has already run well this season and I expect the step-up to a mile to bring further improvement – 1 point win @ 5/2 [rule 4]"   WON 5/4

 

Sunday 7th April

 

"Gasta has slipped to a mark of 72 after spending the early part of here career highly tried in pattern races. She ran an encouraging comeback last week when second and has a good chance of going one better here. I would have preferred a stiffer track but she looks the bet with her stable having started the season in good form – 1 point win @ 7/2"   WON 6/1

 

Saturday 30th March

 

"Petrus was a decent 2-y-o just short of top class (4½ lengths behind Roaring Lion earned him an RPR of 102). He ran well enough as a 3-y-o without winning, particularly when not disgraced in the Britannia. He’s been gelded during the winter and returns on a handy mark of 91 and looks to have been prepared for the race – 1 point win @ 8/1"   WON 7/1

 

Friday 22nd March

 

"There’s several in with a shout in a class 5 1m handicap at Newcastle but I expected Elixsoft to be among the market leaders. She may be at the top end of her optimum handicap mark but she’s in form, acts on the track and the form of her second last time out has been franked - 1point win @ 8/1"  WON 5/1

 

NH season weekend betting advice...

 

Saturday 23rd February (2 bets)

 

"It looks a sub-standard renewal of the Eider Chase but by process of elimination I've landed on Kimberlite Candy. The 7-y-o looks likely to be suited by the stamina test as he’s often staying on after being out-paced. He has won on soft but doesn’t appear to need it and with 5 places on offer 10/1 looks a bit of each-way value." 5th 5/1

 

"Staying at Gosforth Park I like the look of Ascot De Bruyere who has a good record at the track...if the selection can repeat his bold front running display of last time out he looks the value  – 1 point win @ 11/2"  WON 5/2

 

Thursday 21st February (1 bet)

 

"Thunder Buddy returns to 7f on fibresand for the first time since winning and meets the reliable yardstick [fav Bond Angel] on similar terms than when they last met - 1 point win @ 11/2"   WON 5/2

 

 

Sunday 17th February (3 bets)

 

"The lightly raced but progressive Viva Vittoria (NAP) looks to be starting handicap life off of a lenient mark of 116 and I expected her to be the fav for this mares handicap hurdle - 1 point win @ 4/1"  WON 7/1

 

 

Sunday 10th February

 

“If you have access to a Bet365 account [9/2 elsewhere] you must back Riders Onthe Storm in the rated novice chase. Tom Taaffe’s gelding was rated 132 over hurdles and would just sneak into this race for chasers rated below 135. He’s not been disgraced in Grade 1 company this season and I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off fav but Bet365 have priced up with him fifth of sixth at 6/1 and I think that’s good value - 1 point win @ 6/1”   WON 2/1

 

Saturday 9th February (one bet advised)

 

"Joseph O’Brien juveniles continue in flying form and looks to have a great chance of providing another 4-y-o winner in the rated novice hurdle where I expected him to have joint-favs. I’m surprised by the gap in the prices of his two runners and Band Of Outlaws looks value at 3/1. The gelding got off the mark at the second attempt, over Christmas, when beating a decent field that included stable companion Fine Brunello who now looks a likely “Fred Winter” type - 1 point win @ 3/1"   WON 5/2

 

Saturday 2nd February (3 bets advised)

 

Flemcarra e/w (3rd 16/1), Ami Desbois e/w (2nd 8/1), Probability (3rd 5/2)

 

 

Saturday 26th January - only two bets advised for the weekend

 

"Despite a significant Irish presence due to it being the Dublin Festival next weekend it’s interesting that Joseph O’Brien has two runners in the opener and Fakir D’oudaries looks capable of putting it up to the home team that head the market. The Kapgarde gelding won a Cork maiden on his first race since arriving from France, comfortably beating two well-touted representatives from the powerhouses. 1 point each-way @ 9/1 15/2"  WON 4/1

 

"Spiritofthegames is arguable better on good ground but put up some excellent performances on soft ground last season. He has the class to be competitive come March and if so he would have to defy a lofty perch of 146 here and he is value to do so - 1 point win @ 11/2"  3rd 3/1 fav

 

 

Saturday 19th January

 

"The grade 3 handicap hurdle at Ascot looks to be one of the most competitive races of the day but I’m hoping I’ve found a bit of value with Colonial Dreams (NAP). The Westerner gelding was progressing nicely until attempting to give almost a stone to Lygon Rock at Ludlow who went on to finish within 2½ lengths of Paisley Park before that one gained grade 1 glory. Colonial Dreams was entitled to need the run when making a seasonal debut in a competitive handicap on Boxing Day, travelling nicely until tiring at the business end. I’m surprised the selection is available at a double-figure price and I advise getting on early @ 10/1"  2nd 8/1

 

"I put up Ballydine over Christmas and he just failed to win but he may be worth another chance as his best performances have been when turned-out again within a month. He’s an each-way player with some firms going 4 places at 8/1" 3rd 13/2

 

Wednesday 16th January

 

"Uhlan Bute hails from a yard in great form at present and has been on my radar in recent weeks as likely to run well off of his current mark of 119 - 1 point win"  WON 5/1

 

 

Saturday 12th January

 

"I don’t understand the prices at Wetherby, Kauto Riko won impressively last time out but he’s now 8lbs worse off with Beau Bay for a neck ‘defeat’ in March and  the favourite is worth taking on at 13/8 with Kerry Lee out of form [4th of 5 at 9/4] - 1 point win @ 4/1"  WON 11/4

 

"Kempton hosts a cracking renewal of the Lanzarote Hurdle, I’ve no strong views as a betting proposition but I will have an each-way poke at Solomon Grey in the hope that better ground and a step-up in trip about bring the required improvement."  2nd 12/1

 

Weekend 5th & 6th January

 

"Monsieur Le Coq; really impressive winning a novice hurdle easily from Chambard who was strongly supported on the day and should be winning soon – I expected a bigger hike than 5lbs. The ground was heavy that day and Jane Williams’ gelding has to prove he can repeat the performance on better ground, in a higher grade and that 2m isn’t too sharp...he’s worth a bet at 7/2."  WON 11/4

 

"Grey Mist in the opener may have got home by only a short head over CD last month but I strongly fancied the second that day and they pulled well clear of a reliable yardstick in third. That performance may have been under-estimated by the handicapper and punters and he looks worth a bet - 1 point win @ 4/1 generally" WON 5/6

 

"I’m scratching my head as to why Elysees Palace gets in here only 3lbs higher than when winning a class 4 handicap over course and distance and is 6/4… I must be missing something - 1 point win @ 6/4"   WON 8/11

 

Saturday 29th December

 

"At Newbury, in the Mandarin Chase, Reikers Island was always going to be popular but he’s been raised almost a stone for that last win and that is enough for me to want to oppose him. Ballydine hasn’t had much racing, suggesting he’s fragile, but he’s seasonal debut was a decent enough effort and he should come on for that run with the Longsdon yard back amongst the winners this week. At 11/2 he looks the value bet, if you’re playing each-way check the terms and concessions as they vary"  2nd 11/2

 

"In the finale De Rasher Counter makes a return, a horse I put up last time out and he ran a shocker. For that reason, I can’t advise a full bet but I suggest playing at a double-figure price"  WON 10/1 < 12/1

 

Boxing Day 26th December

 

"As you know I’m always keen to forgive a bad run, partly because you can get a decent price next time out, and I’m keen to give Padleyourowncanoe [NAP] another chance after his Newbury disappointment. Now only 3lbs higher than when fourth in the Fred Winter and with Harry Kimber claiming a further 10lbs I expect him to be competitive. (14/1 each-way, BetVictor 12/1 but 4 places)"  WON 13/2

 

"Wolverhampton hosts the only flat meeting of the day where the star is likely to be the consistent Kachy who despite 145 days off should be capable of outclassing these having to give only 3lbs. Bet365 were 6/4 [10/11] for a while but surely he should be odds-on."   WON 4/7

 

"Playing each-way at short prices isn't everyone's idea of punting but the shape of the race with the Rowland Meyrick means that Lake View Lad may be a bit of an each-way steal at 11/2 and 1/4 odds with Bet365. I fully expected him to be fav and he was on early tissues but support for other has resulted in a bit of value"   WON 5/1

 

"At Market Rasen, Sir Egbert (2nd 8/13) is potentially a vulnerable odds-on jolly; he won well last time out but his trainer was quoted as saying: "he's a heavy horse with bad knees and really needs testing ground" it doesn't look like it will be bad ground and Cesar Collonges is a bit of each-way value particularly if all eight run"   WON 7/1 (eight ran)

 

 

Saturday 22nd December

 

"Queenofhearts (NAP) looks over-priced to me at 11/4 – I had her down as the fav after her excellent second last time out at Chepstow, a race in which the 3rd, 4th and 5th have all came out and won on their next outing. Danse Idol sets the standard but the selection proved herself a decent mare by winning a prestigious mares NH flat race at Sandown last season and looks worth a bet."  WON 11/8 (fav)

 

"Eternally Yours has a great chance of landing the mares handicap hurdle after her encouraging return to the track when just failing to land the spoils. (11/8)  WON 5/4

 

"Mont Des Avaloirs is over-priced (at 14/1 with up to 7 places) to reverse the Gerry Fielden form with Lisp."  unpl 5/1 fav 

 

 

Saturday 8th December

 

"The Tizzard stable is in fine form and I think he has good chances in both races on the national course with Ultragold (3rd 12/1) each-way at 12/1 and Shanahans Turn both have course form and have had promising starts to the season over inadequate trips.

Midnight Shadow (WON 4/1) has to be backed at 13/2 based on his heavy ground form against Mont Des Avaloirs on the card last year, the current fav Notwhatiam has some shocking form in testing conditions and I’ll be amazed if it goes off as market leader.

At Sandown not much appeals from a betting perspective but Red Infantry looks the best bet on the card and although 11/4 is a bit shorter than I was hoping for it is still worth taking on this improver  (2nd 7/2)."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"May the odds be ever in your favour"

 

Latest results

FLYING ON THE FLAT...

 

"... no reason whatsoever to take on Circus Maximus (10/11) who looks sure to build on decent 2-y-o form with a step up to middle-distances [won 5/4]. Lincoln Park showed a spark of return to form last time out and can make all from a good draw  – 1 point win @ 6/1 [R4] WON 7/2

 

"In the first, the Lily Agnes for 2-y-o, it does appear that the draw hasn’t been kind to those with arguably the best form – Show Me Show Me and Electric Ladyland - with the exception of Great Dame who has trap 3 and got away well when winning last time out and she has a five stall advantage over the favourite – 1 point win @ 9/2"  WON 7/2 

 

"Sucellus is odds-on based on AW form and is worth opposing on fast ground with Laafy who looks sure to show improvement stepped up in trip – 1 point win @ 5/1"  WON 7/2

 

"I do think that Making Miracles should be fav ahead of stable companion Lucky Deal. Highly tried in the past, he ran well behind another stable companion last weekend and can reverse Chelmsford form back on turf – 1 point win @ 100/30"  WON 11/10

 

"Soto Sizzler was progressive last season when winning a class 2 at Goodwood off of 79 but he then failed to handle heavy ground at Haydock which may have taken its toll on him when disappointing in his final start of the season. He was entitled to need his first run this campaign when running a very encouraging race in the Rosebery Handicap which is looking decent form and he handily got dropped a 1lb. Having won at Goodwood I’d be confident of him handling Epsom’s undulations and I expect a big run. I didn’t expect him to be 100/30 fav in a competitive looking Great Metopolitan. One who may have been under-estimated in the market is Eddystone Rock, on the face of it he’s completely exposed nut he only went up 3lb for winning first time out and on the best of his form and likely to have ideal conditions"

Soto Sizzler – 1 point win @ 7/2  WON 11/4

Eddystone Rock - 1/2 point @ 15/2  2nd 6/1

 

"Just That Lord (Epsom) looks too big to me at 13/2 and has tempted me in. There was little between a few of these over CD in the Dash on Derby day last year but Just That Lord should be marked up finishing third from trap 1 when there was a clear advantage in a high draw. He re-opposes Dark Shot on slightly worse terms before Theodore Ladd’s 5lb claim but at the prices he’s worth taking a chance - 1 point win @ 13/2"   WON 5/1

 

"In the Windsor finale I like the look of Lethal Missile who has a progressive profile and has already run well this season and I expect the step-up to a mile to bring further improvement – 1 point win @ 5/2 [rule 4]"   WON 5/4

 

"Gasta has slipped to a mark of 72 after spending the early part of here career highly tried in pattern races. She ran an encouraging comeback last week when second and has a good chance of going one better here. I would have preferred a stiffer track but she looks the bet with her stable having started the season in good form – 1 point win @ 7/2"   WON 6/1

 

"Petrus was a decent 2-y-o just short of top class (4½ lengths behind Roaring Lion earned him an RPR of 102). He ran well enough as a 3-y-o without winning, particularly when not disgraced in the Britannia. He’s been gelded during the winter and returns on a handy mark of 91 and looks to have been prepared for the race – 1 point win @ 8/1"   WON 7/1

 

"There’s several in with a shout in a class 5 1m handicap at Newcastle but I expected Elixsoft to be among the market leaders. She may be at the top end of her optimum handicap mark but she’s in form, acts on the track and the form of her second last time out has been franked - 1point win @ 8/1"  WON 5/1

 

Selections are proofed to RACING INDEX but not all each-way bets are proofed as each-way. NB: the results are reported at SP/BSP not at the prices advised.

 

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