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SUPER SATURDAY'S!!

 

Saturday 12th January

 

"I don’t understand the prices at Wetherby, Kauto Riko won impressively last time out but he’s now 8lbs worse off with Beau Bay for a neck ‘defeat’ in March and  the favourite is worth taking on at 13/8 with Kerry Lee out of form [4th of 5 at 9/4] - 1 point win @ 4/1"  WON 11/4

 

"Kempton hosts a cracking renewal of the Lanzarote Hurdle, I’ve no strong views as a betting proposition but I will have an each-way poke at Solomon Grey in the hope that better ground and a step-up in trip about bring the required improvement."  2nd 12/1

 

Weekend 5th & 6th January

 

"Monsieur Le Coq; really impressive winning a novice hurdle easily from Chambard who was strongly supported on the day and should be winning soon – I expected a bigger hike than 5lbs. The ground was heavy that day and Jane Williams’ gelding has to prove he can repeat the performance on better ground, in a higher grade and that 2m isn’t too sharp...he’s worth a bet at 7/2."  WON 11/4

 

"Grey Mist in the opener may have got home by only a short head over CD last month but I strongly fancied the second that day and they pulled well clear of a reliable yardstick in third. That performance may have been under-estimated by the handicapper and punters and he looks worth a bet - 1 point win @ 4/1 generally" WON 5/6

 

"I’m scratching my head as to why Elysees Palace gets in here only 3lbs higher than when winning a class 4 handicap over course and distance and is 6/4… I must be missing something - 1 point win @ 6/4"   WON 8/11

 

Saturday 29th December

 

"At Newbury, in the Mandarin Chase, Reikers Island was always going to be popular but he’s been raised almost a stone for that last win and that is enough for me to want to oppose him. Ballydine hasn’t had much racing, suggesting he’s fragile, but he’s seasonal debut was a decent enough effort and he should come on for that run with the Longsdon yard back amongst the winners this week. At 11/2 he looks the value bet, if you’re playing each-way check the terms and concessions as they vary"  2nd 11/2

 

"In the finale De Rasher Counter makes a return, a horse I put up last time out and he ran a shocker. For that reason, I can’t advise a full bet but I suggest playing at a double-figure price"  WON 10/1 < 12/1

 

 

Boxing Day 26th December

 

"As you know I’m always keen to forgive a bad run, partly because you can get a decent price next time out, and I’m keen to give Padleyourowncanoe [NAP] another chance after his Newbury disappointment. Now only 3lbs higher than when fourth in the Fred Winter and with Harry Kimber claiming a further 10lbs I expect him to be competitive. (14/1 each-way, BetVictor 12/1 but 4 places)"  WON 13/2

 

"Wolverhampton hosts the only flat meeting of the day where the star is likely to be the consistent Kachy who despite 145 days off should be capable of outclassing these having to give only 3lbs. Bet365 were 6/4 [10/11] for a while but surely he should be odds-on."   WON 4/7

 

"Playing each-way at short prices isn't everyone's idea of punting but the shape of the race with the Rowland Meyrick means that Lake View Lad may be a bit of an each-way steal at 11/2 and 1/4 odds with Bet365. I fully expected him to be fav and he was on early tissues but support for other has resulted in a bit of value"   WON 5/1

 

"At Market Rasen, Sir Egbert (2nd 8/13) is potentially a vulnerable odds-on jolly; he won well last time out but his trainer was quoted as saying: "he's a heavy horse with bad knees and really needs testing ground" it doesn't look like it will be bad ground and Cesar Collonges is a bit of each-way value particularly if all eight run"   WON 7/1 (eight ran)

 

 

Saturday 22nd December

 

"Queenofhearts (NAP) looks over-priced to me at 11/4 – I had her down as the fav after her excellent second last time out at Chepstow, a race in which the 3rd, 4th and 5th have all came out and won on their next outing. Danse Idol sets the standard but the selection proved herself a decent mare by winning a prestigious mares NH flat race at Sandown last season and looks worth a bet."  WON 11/8 (fav)

 

"Eternally Yours has a great chance of landing the mares handicap hurdle after her encouraging return to the track when just failing to land the spoils. (11/8)  WON 5/4

 

"Mont Des Avaloirs is over-priced (at 14/1 with up to 7 places) to reverse the Gerry Fielden form with Lisp."  unpl 5/1 fav 

 

 

Saturday 8th December

 

"The Tizzard stable is in fine form and I think he has good chances in both races on the national course with Ultragold (3rd 12/1) each-way at 12/1 and Shanahans Turn both have course form and have had promising starts to the season over inadequate trips.

Midnight Shadow (WON 4/1) has to be backed at 13/2 based on his heavy ground form against Mont Des Avaloirs on the card last year, the current fav Notwhatiam has some shocking form in testing conditions and I’ll be amazed if it goes off as market leader.

At Sandown not much appeals from a betting perspective but Red Infantry looks the best bet on the card and although 11/4 is a bit shorter than I was hoping for it is still worth taking on this improver  (2nd 7/2)."

 

 

Saturday 24th November

 

Only three bets advised:

 

"Black Mischief looks to be a bit of value in a competitive handicap hurdle . The career of the Black Sam Bellamy gelding was on an upwards curve until falling last time out at Market Rasen when mounting a serious challenge; the winner that day has since gone up a stone. Harry Fry has his yard in good form and the champion jockey replaces the amateur that rode last time out. If the Imperial Cup form stands up then the biggest danger looks to be the well-supported Mr Antolini (2nd) but @ 11/2 each-way the selection looks the bet."  WON 6/1

 

"In the very first race of the day Contrive looks to have been given a chance to record her third win in four starts, the other effort was a second in a class 2 at Newmarket, having been raised on 3lbs for her last win. The small swing in favour of Golden Iris shouldn’t be enough for that filly to reverse the form. (7/2 with 15p rule 4)"  WON 9/4

 

Saturday 10th November

 

"I can’t remember putting up a horse that’s run twice and finished 12th and 11th but Battle Of Waterloo is worth a second look, a bit of an eye-catcher when 150/1 on debut at HQ when not getting a clear run in a race that now looks to have been decent. Backed into 9/2 next time out at Yarmouth he ran too freely and wasn’t suited by the softer ground. He could be a bit of each-way value against the long odds-on fav here (20/1 from 33/1 first show)"  WON 10/1

 

"The turf flat season really finished weeks ago but it officially ends at Doncaster and it looks a tremendously trappy card to end on! Eirene... disappointed over 7f last time out having been a real improver prior to that. A smooth traveller so back to lay possibilities. 1/2 point e/w @ 10/1"  3rd 8/1

 

...and followed up with one bet on Sunday 11th:

 

"Loose Chips is proven on the track and after an encouraging seasonal debut at Carlisle he looks worth a bet to add to his course wins. 1 point win at 13/2"  WON 7/1

 

Saturday 20th

 

No bets advised on British Champions Day

 

Saturday 6th October

 

"One that would appreciate very drop of rain is Raising Sand. Coming here off of a decent effort in the Cambridgeshire, Raising Sand - surprisingly yet to win at the trip – loves Ascot and was third in last year’s renewal only beaten by group horses Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters. Jamie Osborne’s gelding gets in here off of a 2lb lower mark and has a cracking each-way chance at 9/1."  WON 5/1

 

"Later on the card (and hopefully after more rain) Alaadel lines up in the 5f sprint a fresh horse having looked the one to take out of the Ayr Bronze Cup. He got no luck at all that day but the silver lining is that he was dropped 2lbs and gets in here only 4lbs higher than when beating Baron Bolt last autumn. The drop to the minimum trip is an unknown but he has an each-way chance here at 8/1." unpl 4/1 fav

 

"At Newmarket, the filly Rawdaa looks to have been crying out for a step up in trip and will appreciate 10f after some decent efforts over a mile. She is yet to encounter soft ground so any easing in the going would be an unknown factor but she is a worthy fav at 7/2."  WON 5/2

 

"Intense Romance is in good form and will appreciate the rain that is expected to fall before racing...she looks good each-way value at 16/1 which won't last long if the going is soft"   WON 11/1 (soft)  

 

Advice for the Arc (on Sunday 7th):

 

"Enable should win on all known form but racing is rarely that simple and I’d prefer to have a crack with a couple of each-way pokes: Capri is really interesting with some firms going 16/1 with enhanced places....Capri appears to be stable second string but is favoured by freshness and a good draw over Kew Gardens. Cloth Of Stars is another who can step-up on recent form and out-run his price (25/1 4 places). Most firms have been slow pricing up w/o Enable markets and they will be worth considering on Sunday morning."

Result:  Enable WON Evs, Cloth Of Stars (3rd 25/1) Capri (5th 25/1)

 

Saturday 22nd September

 

"Having missed the big prices on Son Of Rest for the Ayr Gold Cup I woudn't normally be interested but he's a group horse 10lbs well in, in a handicap and still represents value at 7/1"  WON (DH) 5/1

 

"I put up Al Qawah for the Ayr Gold Cup but having missed the cut (stakes returned he now goes for the Silver Cup at 11/1) 2nd 4/1 Fav

 

Saturday 8th September

 

"Mekong looks the bet of the day...from 13/2 on Friday morning after his superb run at York and proven form on heavy ground and with at least two rivals already ruled out he’s currently a best priced 9/4" [2/1]  WON 9/4

 

"Here Comes When (2:25) has solid Group 1 form in testing conditions and looks the bet here at 6/1(R4) [9/2]"  WON 3/1

 

 

Saturday 1st September

 

"Elsewhere most of the races look minefields and could end up being expensive to play in but I suggest Global Applause each-way @ 10/1"  WON 15/2

 

 

Saturday 25th August

 

"York gets underway with the Group 3 Strensall Stakes and we have a genuine Group 1 performer that could easily have gone to Goodwood for the Group 2 mile. There is an argument that Lord Glitters is over-priced at 15/8 given his form this season...I would suggest backing Lord Glitters (with a saver on Threading)"  WON 2/1

 

"Today’s nap is at Chelmsford where I’m really keen on Multhilla in the opener (7/2). Marco Botti’s filly has improved with each run and the step-up in trip looks ideal. The form of her last run has worked out well and I think an opening mark of 67 looks lenient"  2nd

 

"...“next best” is Stylehunter who I had in mind for the Cambridgeshire or the consolation race - so I would expect him to win today if he’s to have any chance at Newmarket, the step-up in trip is a positive and I expect him to run well - 2 points win at 11/8"  WON 8/11

 

 

 

Saturday 18th August

 

"Squats (WON 15/2) won the 7f handicap on the card (3:00) last year and has an excellent chance of following up here on more favourable terms but I wouldn’t write off the chances of Graphite Storm (3rd 9/1) being able to reverse that form despite being worse off and he’s worth an each-way bet too. I put up Sabador (2nd 5/1) at Ascot his rider employed front running tactics that clearly didn’t suit, he remains on a good mark and joins my other picks as three against the field”  [Tricast paid: £417; Trifecta paid £818]

 

"Hamada steps up from handicap company and with the improvement he’s shown already I expect him to be competitive at this level. There are several likely threats but 3/1 is a fair price and worth a bet. I expect him to be popular on the day."  WON 7/4

 

"My most likely winner on Saturday is Star Terms... a progressive filly who starts her Nursery career on a mark of 83 which seems fair compared with the lenient mark allotted to the horse she beat last time... 2 points win @ Evs"  WON 10/11

 

Saturday 28th July (3 winners from only 7 bets)...

 

"At York Flying Pursuit won the Skybet Dash last year and although he bids to retain it off of a 4lbs higher mark, the gelding is 2lbs lower than when a good 4th in the Great St Wilfrid last year, is not ground dependant and has a fair each-way chance (20/1 R4)...WON 9/1

 

...Get Knotted also looks to have sound claims of repeating a win from the 2017 renewal."  WON 9/4

 

"Newcastle has no going concerns on the AW and there’s a decent class 3 handicap, I think two are over-priced and with some firms going 4 places it’s worth backing both Breanski 8/1 [WON 15/2] - progressive and proven at the track - [and Storm Ahead]" unpl 12/1

 

(As if that wasn't enough, we added one bet on the Sunday):

"...one I am interested in is Onefootinfront. Two races ago he bumped into one of Sir Mark’s plot horses who won off of 58 and is now rated 70 after rattling up a four-timer. Stepped up in trip after that the selection duly won over CD. Up 4lbs for that victory (8th and 11th have both placed since) he should still be competitive...and suggest a bet @ 4/1"  WON 4/1

 

 

ANOTHER Saturday gamble landed...

 

Saturday 21st July.

 

"Stratum was another eye-catcher from the royal meeting when not getting the run of the race and still managing to finish third. He looks a decent stayer and has been raised only 2lbs for the effort - 1 point win @ 9/2"  WON 11/4

 

"Ice Cold In Alex is the value to over-turn the form of a similar race over CD where he was badly hampered - 1/2 point each-way @ 6/1"  WON 9/2

 

"In the Summer Plate give Shantou Village another chance as he gets in here off of a mark 7lbs lower than when winning on finale day at Sandown last year. He has run some poor races since then but at 12/1 with 4 places he’s well worth an each-way punt." 3rd 11/1

 

Saturday 14th July

 

"Wadilsafa went into the notebook after Ascot where he pulled hard in the Hampton Court and I think the drop back in trip should help him settle and he should be backed here at 11/4".  WON 7/4

 

"The Bunbury Cup has always been one of my favourite handicaps so I always like to play in the race, there’s no solid bet for me this year but Von Blucher and Cardsharp 25/1 (4th 20/1) are a couple of decent each-way pokes"  

 

Saturday 7th July

 

"No members bet today, although I am interested in Lunar Carona each-way...there is some 11/2 on Monday evening but generally only 3/1..."  WON 2/1

 

"HORSEPLAY – I took on God Given last time out and came off second best but I’ve been hoping to see this filly back at 1m 4f after her cracking effort against Coronet at York. That piece of form is arguably the best on offer here and although she’s yet to win at the trip she’s bred to stay and the ground probably went against her in Enable’s Oaks. A little disappointed to see her made fav here, I still think 11/4 is worth a bet." WON 11/4

 

"... only one bet advised, I think Bet365 have made a mistake pricing up Letsbe Avenue at 15/2; the Lawman gelding really caught the eye on seasonal debut at Sandown when slightly unlucky and he is expected to come on for that, off of mark of 75 he has a great each-way chance..."  WON 16/1

 

Pilaster won a decent novice event at Chelmsford and the daughter of Nathaniel should relish the step up in trip... she should be backed at 5/2”  WON Evs

 

 

Week commencing 13th August

 

"Burn Some Dust...has improved stepping-up to middle-distances, he won well over an extended 1m 4f last time out (2nd won since) and a 5lb rise doesn’t appear excessive. He should go well again"  WON 5/2

 

Week commencing 7th August

 

"I had Just In Time (2nd 5/2) and Vis A Vis (WON 4/1) as joint favs at around 9/4 so I'm surprised to see them at 13/8 and 4/1 respectively - the latter is the more progressive and looks the value at 4/1."

 

"I will be looking to back Look Surprised (6/1). She has been progressive this season and although she wasn’t that impressive when winning at Salisbury, the fourth that day won last Friday, she acts on the track, has a fairly low draw and has sound each-way claims"  WON 4/1

 

"I do like the progressive Good Effort who has improved nicely with each race and an opening mark of 79 looks a winnable one. The Sharmadal colt is up against some experienced handicappers here and, although 5/1 is tempting, it would only take one non-runner to change the shape of the market significantly and prevents me from advising as a full bet" WON 2/1 (all eight ran)

 

 

 

"May the odds be ever in your favour"

 

Contact details

Email: members@cheekpieces.co.uk

LATEST...IN THE LAST WEEK!!!

 

"I don’t understand the pricing-up at Wetherby, granted Kauto Riko won impressively last time out but he’s now 8lbs worse off with Beau Bay for a neck ‘defeat’ in March and  the favourite is worth taking on at 13/8 with Kerry Lee out-of-form - 1 point win @ 4/1"  WON 11/4

 

"Grey Mist may have got home by only a short head over CD last month but I strongly fancied the second that day and they pulled well clear of the third and may have been under-estimated - 1 point win @ 4/1"  WON 5/6

 

"I’m scratching my head as to why Elysees Palace gets in here only 3lbs higher than when winning a class 4 handicap over course and distance and is 6/4… I must be missing something - 1 point win @ 6/4"  WON 8/11

 

"Monsieur Le Coq a really impressive winning a novice hurdle easily from Chambard - who was strongly supported on the day and should be winning soon – I expected a bigger hike than 5lbs. The ground was heavy that day and Jane Williams’ gelding has to prove he can repeat the performance on better ground, in a higher grade and that 2m isn’t too sharp (a likely improver over a further) he’s worth a bet at 7/2"  WON 11/4

 

"Thunder Buddy put up a thoroughly encouraging fibresand debut and ought to be right in the mix here off of the same mark. That effort came after a 5-month break and, bred for fibresand, the gelding is expected to show further improvement"   WON 9/2

 

"Star Ascending [NAP] gets the vote now back on a competitive mark over CD he excels at and the form of his previous race looks decent"  3rd 25/1

 

"Knockgraffon kicked us off to a winning start last year and, off a lower mark, looks a decent price to repeat the feat – 1 point win @ 11/4"  WON 4/1

 

...CHRISTMAS 2018...

 

"... I’m always keen to forgive a bad run, partly because you can get a decent price next time out, so I’m keen to give Padleyourowncanoe [NAP] another chance after his Newbury disappointment. Now only 3lbs higher than when fourth in the Fred Winter and with Harry Kimber claiming a further 10lbs I expect him to be competitive. (14/1 each-way, BetVictor 12/1 4 places)"  WON 13/2

 

"Sir Egbert is potentially a vulnerable odds-on jolly; he won well last time out but his trainer was quoted as saying: "he's a heavy horse with bad knees and really needs testing ground" it doesn't look like it will be bad ground and Cesar Collonges is a bit of each-way value"  WON 7/1

 

"Lake View Lad may be a bit of an each-way steal at 11/2 and 1/4 odds with Bet365. I fully expected him to be fav and he was on early tissues but support for other has resulted in a bit of value"   WON 5/1

 

"Eternally Yours has a great chance of landing the mares handicap hurdle after her encouraging return to the track when just failing to land the spoils (11/8)"  WON 5/4

 

"Queenofhearts (NAP) looks over-priced to me at 11/4 – I had her down as the fav after an excellent second last time out at Chepstow, a race in which the 3rd, 4th and 5th have all came out an won on their next outing. Danse Idol sets the standard but the selection proved herself a decent mare by winning a prestigious mares NH flat race at Sandown last season and looks worth a bet."  WON 11/8 fav

 

...DECEMBER 2018...

 

"Showboating may be a 10-y-o but his form at the track is at least a stone better than on any other surface. After some moderate runs elsewhere his mark has slipped 17lbs lower than when contesting a class 3 at the track in May and he has to be worth a bet @ 10/1 each-way"   WON 13/2

 

"I can understand why Western Duke is the tissue fav for the penultimate race at Wolves but there’s enough doubts for me to oppose it with the lightly raced Aircraft Carrier who can reverse the form with Charlie D after being left with too much to do when they met last time out. 7/2 is a fair price"   WON 5/2

 

"Midnight Shadow has to be backed at 13/2 based on his heavy ground form against Mont Des Avaloirs on the card last year, the current fav Notwhatiam (3rd 9/1) has some shocking form in testing conditions and I’ll be amazed if it goes off as market leader"   WON 4/1

 

"Contrive looks to have been given a chance to record her third win in four starts, the other effort was a second in a class 2 at Newmarket, having been raised on 3lbs for her last win. The small swing in favour of Golden Iris shouldn’t be enough for that filly to reverse the form (7/2 [rule 4])"   WON 9/4

 

"Black Mischief looks to be a bit of value in a competitive handicap hurdle....on an upwards curve until falling last time out at Market Rasen when mounting a serious challenge; the winner that day has since gone up a stone. Harry Fry has his yard in good form and the champion jockey replaces the amateur that rode last time out.@ 11/2 each-way the selection looks the bet."   WON 6/1

 

"An each-way angle with Jellmood currently priced-up at 16/1 has slipped to his lowest ever rating after a couple of disappointing efforts since having a wind op. A repeat of his novice win a year ago would put him in with a shout here off of 85. It will take a leap of faith to hope he’s back to his best but at the prices it’s a risk worth taking."  2nd 12/1

 

"Speedo Boy could be the best handicapped horse of the day on a perch of 118 after his fine run in the Cambridgeshire and has a favourites chance here "  WON 4/1

 

"Loose Chips is proven at the track and after an encouraging seasonal debut at Carlisle he looks worth a bet to add to his course wins - 1 point win at 13/2"   WON 7/1

 

"I can’t remember putting up a horse that’s run twice and finished 12th and 11th but Battle Of Waterloo is worth a second look. He was a bit of an eye-catcher when 150/1 on debut at HQ when not getting a clear run in a race that now looks to have been decent. Backed into 9/2 next time out at Yarmouth he ran too freely and wasn’t suited by the softer ground. He could be a bit of each-way value against the long odds-on fav here (20/1 from 33/1 first show)"   WON 10/1

 

"I fully expected Contrive to be favourite so I’m delighted to see she doesn’t head the market. She finished a close second in a class 2 fillies handicap last time out, a race in which the third and fourth had won last time out. She seems progressive and a 3lb rise seems lenient and with this drop in grade she should be in the mix."  WON 4/1

 

"C/D winner Kingston Kurrajong also takes a drop in grade having slipped to a winnable mark and looks worth an each-way interest @ 16/1"  2nd 13/2

 

 

 

Selections are proofed to RACING INDEX not all Twitter bets are recorded and each-way bets are rarely proofed as each-way. Note the results are reported at SP/BSP not at the prices advised.

 

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