LATEST....THOMAS PATRICK WON 3/1 (adv 5/1)...MJJACK WON 7/1...
Saturday 7th April
"The closest I came to advising a full members bet was Raven's Lady where the drop back to 6f and the likely fast pace will definitely suit and she's proven on the track. She needs to improve but will have a fitness advantage and the booking of Atzeni is another positive. There are a few in the races that are exposed but have slipped to a dangerous mark and the 5/1 with a maximum of eight runners doesn't appeal too much, although I advising having a small bet." WON 7/1
Saturday 31st March
"I was hoping for a proper each-way price on Potters Legend against the solid fav Behind Time. The selection is now 9lbs lower than when a "staying on" 4th in last year's Kim Muir and has hinted at return to form of late. On the early shows he was 8/1 and better but the best price now is 11/2. I know that will be an each-way price for many of you - 1/2 point e/w at 11/2" WON 9/2
Friday 23rd March
"Euxton Lane has a bit to find with De Rasher Counter but is more progressive. A winner last time out, he was clearly up against it taking on Global Citizen the time before that and can continue his improvement here with a further step-up in trip. He is worth a bet at 2/1 - 2 points win" WON 2/1
Out of luck with the two members bets over the weeked of 24th-25th but we had a result with the selections for the Irish Lincoln:
"Naas hosts the Irish Lincoln on Sunday and if you're interested in playing, my two against the field are: On The Go Again (11/1) and Sorelle Delle Rose (14/1). The former was really progressive towards the end of last season and is expected to go well..." A late gamble on the former was duely landed when he obliged (6/1 fav).
Balko Des Flos e/w at 12/1 ante-post - if you did you now have e/w 3 places with a maximum 7 runners; if you didn't I'd suggest waiting for confirmation that Douvan is a NR [14/1 in the revised DOTR market] WON 8/1
Novices used to have a good record in this and I do like the each-way chance of Whiskey Sour (12/1) 3rd 7/1
The ground may have gone against Road To Respect but he's been on my radar for a while, he should be backed each-way at 12/1 (4th* 9/1) *several firms paying 4 places
Samcro - 3 points win best morning price (WON 8/11)
Presenting Percy (2 points win) (WON 5/2) at best morning odds
Barra (1 pont e/w adv 33/1 now 20/1) 3rd 16/1; William Henry (1 point win @ 8/1) 4th 8/1
Carefully Selected (10/1) 2nd 6/1
Footpad at best morning odds (11/10) WON 4/6
Singlefarmpayment (8/1) [5th] with Shantou Flyer (18/1 - already advised 25/1) 2nd 14/1
Buveur D’Air should win and his price of 8/15 is too prohibitive to have a bet but it depends on your perception of value. According to the market (at 4/7) he has a 63.6% chance of winning. I would argue that he’s got a 75% chance and should be 3/1 ON so still represents value WON 4/6
Rathvinden 6/1, Sizing Tennessee (adv e/w 16/1) WON 9/2 & 3rd 8/1
Any Second Now & Barney Dwan (e/w) unpl & 4th 15/2
February...only 29 bets produced 11 winners*...WON 4/1 (adv 6/1)...WON 11/2 ...WON 3/1 (adv 9/2)...WON 2/1 (adv 100/30),,,WON 5/4 (adv 11/4...WON Evs...WON 11/8 (adv 7/4)....WON 13/8 (adv 11/4)...WON 11/10 (adv 3/1)..WON 4/6 < Evs...3rd 33/1
* includes "place only" 3rd @ 33/1
Saturday 3rd March - starved of racing for over a week this is the complete advice given to members for ITV's AW card:
"No members bet today... but I will put up some selections for today’s card at Lingfield:
1:45 – Chevalier – has competed at a higher level than this, he had excuses the last day and still appears to be on a winnable mark. With 8 runners he looks a sound each-way bet @ 8/1. 3rd 8/1
2:20 – Attain – in a trappy race Attain looks to have sound each-way claims WON 7/1
2:55 – Atletico – I’m not a fan of AW sprints where you seem to get the same horses running against each other every week on similar terms with a different outcome every time. I would normally be wary of backing a horse with “222” next to it’s name but Atletico is 2 from 5 on AW and the jockey booking should make a difference. 2nd 2/1
3:30 – Lansky – was available at 100/30 on Friday afternoon and, even with no non-runners, he’s currently a best-priced 2/1. He’s placed efforts in the Acomb and Mill Reef leave him not too far off of pattern company, he’s won on polytrack and, assuming he’s fit enough today, he looks the best option. unpl 2/1
4:00 & 4:35 – no selection
5:10 – It’s unfortunate that the race has cut-up so badly with only four runners but that has left the way clear for Authors Dream to continue he’s remarkable progression from a mark of 57 in December to a current perch of 81" WON 11/10
Saturday gambles landed in 2017...
"Clan Des Obeaux (2nd 3/1) looks a class act but it's asking a lot for a 5-y-o off of 155 and I wouldn't take the form with Whisper on face value as the Hennessey runner-up wouldn't have been primed for his seasonal debut. Kings Odyssey (3rd 9/1) looks to have been targetted at this race after falling in last year's renewal and he carries 7lb less this time around. He should be spot-on for this after a debut over a trip too short for him. The other one that interests me and is worth making-up a two-pronged attack on the race is Guitar Pete (WON 9/1 < 11/1). His effort in the BV Gold Cup can be excused as he was virtually brought-down. Prior to that he beat Splash Of Ginge and Sametegal impressively at Wetherby and should go well again."
"One runner who doesn't appear to be ground dependant is Elgin (Ascot 3:00) who had a decent novice season and has already had a seasonal debut to ensure he is fit enough today. Either of the Henderson horses could be thrown in here...but I do feel that the selection is a bit of value against the pair at around 7/1" WON 6/1
Although that was the only account bet, members were given the following advice for the day's big race the Charlie Hall Chase:
"Wetherby hosts an intriguing Charlie Hall Chase, Colin Tizzard has suggested Cue Card is in better shape than twelve months ago but I have my doubts whether he or Coneygree will be primed for this (as I expect the Befair Chase is there early season target) and at 8/11 the pair I would prefer to take them on with Bristol De Mai each-way at 9/1. The selection looked like a live Gold Cup outsider last season and with the yard in flying form he looks the value." WON 6/1
Saturday 21st October (British Champions Day):
"The rain has come in time for Bateel and she looks one of the best bets of the day but this is reflected in the market which she now heads at 9/4. I think there are too many dangers in the race to take a price that low. Hydraenga offers a bit of each-way value at 15/2; she boasts top-class form up to 10f and her pedigree suggests 1m 4f will bring about further improvement." WON 4/1
This is the ONLY betting advice given to members on Saturday (14th):
"I’m confident of getting the day off to a winning start with KEW GARDENS (Newmarket 1:50). The colt has solid Group race form and can capture this listed event; as a son of Frankel (aligned with stamina on the dam’s side) he should relish the extra two furlongs and looks a good thing. 2 points win @ 7/4" WON 13/8
"I can’t let the Cesarewitch pass without heralding the chances of WITHHOLD (3:40). I feel he’s been laid out for the race (granted many have) but I think he could be chucked in here off of 87. After finishing second to Blakeney Point (now rated 23lbs higher) he then beat London Prize (2nd 16/1) giving it 8lbs and that too is now 23lbs higher (and has places claims here). Given a prep for this over and inadequate 12f Withhold should be spot on for this and has to be a knocking each-way punt at 12/1". WON 5/1
Profit at all the big meetings:
Doncaster: 10 points level stakes profit (win at BSP) = 100% return on investment
25% winners at an average BSP of over 9/1
York: 21.5 points level stakes profit (win only at BSP) = 135% return on investment
Glorious Goodwoood: 7.5 points level stakes profit (win only at BSP) = 40% ROI
Newmarket July: 12 points level stakes profit (at BSP) = 88% ROI
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"May the odds be ever in your favour"
"A very difficult start to Newmarket’s Craven meeting but I do like the chances of Mjjack. Well supported when disappointing first time up at Doncaster, he'll appreciate a return to 7f and better ground. Skybet go 5 places at 13/2 which is a decent each-way bet" WON 7/1
"I had Thomas Patrick ear-marked for the handicap chase but I didn’t expect him to be fav, it’s a race I would be looking to play each-way...with enhanced place offers he looks a safe e/w pick at 5/1" WON 3/1
"...Kilfilum Cross should be backed (WON 15/8) and at the day’s only flat card at Wolverhampton the best race of the night is the Conditions Stakes where Doctor Sardonicus (WON 3/1) is my idea of the fav with a draw and fitness advantage over Goldream." 1 point win on each
"...take a punt on the complete outsider Under The Phone @ 20/1. Robin Dickin’s gelding is lightly raced for a 9-y-o and can be forgiven he last run after the best part of two years off the track. A previous course winner he returns on a lower mark than for his last chase win. This isn’t a great race and at that price he’s worth an each-way bet." 3rd 11/2
"Potters Legend ... is now 9lbs lower than when a "staying on" 4th in last year's Kim Muir and has hinted at return to form of late... - 1/2 point each-way @ 11/2" WON 9/2
"Euxton Lane has a bit to find with De Rasher Counter but is more progressive . A winner last time out, he was clearly up against it taking on Global Citizen the time before that and can continue his improvement here with a further step-up in trip - 23 points win"
"Members were advised to back Balko Des Flos e/w at 12/1 ante-post - if you did you now have e/w 3 places with a maximum 7 runners. If you didn't, I'd suggest waiting for confirmation that Douvan is out [14/1 in revised market]."
"Portrait King... as we saw with the first and second in the Welsh National, teenagers cannot be written off in these marathon tests. I think he has at least an each-way chance and suggest a place bet" " 3rd 33/1
"My Fantasea looks to have a great chance of going one better than his 2nd last time out. Not the first horse to improve from a switch to Ian Williams, he can benefit from a slight drop in grade and a better draw. (3/1 generally). "
"I can’t resist having a punt on the opener at Carlisle with Ballinslea Bridge who won his last race impressively and the form has been franked and is worth a bet at 11/4 (generally)." WON 13/8
"Delire D’Esrtruval is a bit of value against the short price fav. An impressive winner on his penultimate start, he disappointed next time out when stepped up in trip. The drop back to a stiff 2m will suit (7/4)" WON 11/8
"The progressive Samphire Coast looks well capable of defyinga 5lb riseand is worth an interest @ 11/4 (20p R4)"
"Smooth Stepper is not the most consistent proposition either but he does have a good course record and this dour stayer is on a winning mark... he represents a bit of value and is worth a bet at 100/30" WON 2/1
"My idea of a value bet is Attention Please looked unlucky when falling last time out and the form of that race has been franked since. Available at 5/1 Stan James and 9/2 elsewhere, I suggest a bet"
"Topofthegame went into a few notebooks at Kempton and should be backed at 5/1" WON 11/2
"Ballydine looks absolutely thrown in here off of 131 based on his hurdles form (2nd to Barters Hill) the step-up in trip for the first time over fences will help and he should be backed at 6/1" WON 4/1
"Hurricane Rita won't be first (or last) to get bogged down in the Ffos Lay 'clay' and she's worth another chance...Power's have gone 2/1 (9/4 elsewhere) and I would want bigger than that"
WON 7/2 (adv 100/30)
"I can't resist an each-way play @ 50/1 on Magnus Maximus. Recent form shows no encouragement but he's slipped to a mark that he won a class 2 at Ascot and at that price he's worth taking a chance on." 2nd 16/1
"I'm keen to take an each-way chance with Megabucks making his chasing debut under rules. This winning pointer has wasted little time over the smaller obstacles before embarking on a chasing career...and at 10/1 looks a decent each-way bet.
" 2nd 3/1 fav
"Speredek thrives on heavy ground and ran an encouraging race over hurdles in a competitive race last time out... as a course winner he ticks all the boxes.
1 point win @ 9/4" WON 10/11
"Sustained support for Snaffled has resulted in Magic Pulse being widely available at 9/4 and I can't resist having a piece of that. The filly ran an eye-catching race over CD last week going down by only a short head, up 2lbs but dropping in grade she looks to have a decent chance." WON 2/1
"I was expecting Pulsating her to be shorter than 2/1. Impressive over C/D two starts ago she has excuses for last time out defeat and can resume winning ways in this grade." WON 2/1
"The 2m in a hot race would have been sharp enough for Knockgraffon last time out and he can benefit from a step back up in trip.
1 point win at 4/1" WON 7/2
"Tikkanbar each-way at 11/2" WON 3/1
"Merie Devie is being backed as if defeat is out of the question but Duca De Thaix is a bit of value at 11/2 to turn the tables...he ran a great race after such a lengthy lay-off and may be under-estimated. 1 point win @ 11/2" WON 4/1
"Petticoat Tails had a valid excuse for her disappointing effort first time out , prior to that her bumper form is outstanding, as long as she hurdles well she can take this on the way to better things; 2 points win @ 2/1" WON 13/8
"Really keen on the chances of Kildisart (2nd 3/1 < 9/2) on his handicap debut and I expect him to be well supported on the day. Golan Fortune is worth a saver." WON 7/2 < 9/1
"Candesta may be worth taking a chance with at a decent price with the gelding now 9lbs lower than his last victory a year ago. His last run is better than the bare form as he raced against a track bias and his run can be marked up." WON 5/1 (adv 7/1)
"Kings Odyssey looks to have been targetted at this race after falling in last year's renewal and he carries 7lb less this time around. He should be spot-on for this after a debut over a trip too short for him. (3rd 9/1)...I suggest a two-pronged attack on the race with Guitar Pete. His effort in the BV Gold Cup can be excused as he was virtually brought-down. Prior to that he beat Splash Of Ginge and Sametegal impressively at Wetherby and should go well again" WON 9/1
"Cap Du Nord has already been supported and is now favourite. The lightly raced gelding has been aimed at this race for a while (a race won by the yard’s Limited Reserve last year) he starts handicap life off of 100...1 point win" WON 9/2
"Maria’s Benefit (Ludlow 1:30) is another who can follow-up off of a revised mark, she won impressively the last day and wasn’t given enough credit. 1 point win @ 9/4"
"No account bet but I suggest a small stakes interest in Mala Beach at 9/1...the selection ran an eye-catching comeback at Galway after a long absence and should go well here with ideal conditions."
"Delusionofgrandeur...loves the track and has a good opportunity here after some steady improvement this season. 1 point win @ 13/8 " WON 6/4
"Thomas Campbell is a good thing and must be backed (@ 7/4). Absolutely hosed in the last day and with James Bowen taking over he's effectively only 3lbs higher with the step-up in trip likely to bring further improvement"
"Houblon Des Obeaux looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to return to winning ways. He gets in here over a stone less than when a good second to Many Clouds in the Hennessey two years ago when conceding weight to the winner... he could be thrown in here and is worth backing @ 3/1". WON 5/2
"Louis Vac Pouch is really progressive and ran a cracking seasonal debut to finish so close to the principles in a race that couldn’t have worked out better and if he improves again for the step-up in trip he looks a good thing here. 1 point win @ 3/1" WON 5/2
"On A Promise won comfortably last week and goes again here without a penalty for that win. Although I rarely put-up NH horses at under 2/1 I do think 11/8 is worth taking here."
"Red Rising is a short-priced fav for the staying handicap Hurdle but I'm keen to take him on on with Steely Addition. The Hobbs' gelding has shown steady progression to-date and looks likely to continue to improve. After falling on his seasonal reappearance when looking in need of the run, he returned to win with a bit in hand at Wincanton and looks capable of going in again under a penalty here." WON 4/1
"Cue Card & Coneygree... at 8/11 the pair I would prefer to take them on with Bristol De Mai each-way at 9/1. The selection looked like a live Gold Cup outsider last season and with the yard in flying form he looks the value" WON 6/1
"One runner who doesn't appear to be ground dependant is Elgin who had a decent novice season and has already had a seasonal debut to ensure he is fit enough today. Either of the Henderson horses could be thrown in here but I don't think anyone is sure which will come out on top and I do feel that the selection is a bit of value against the pair at around 7/1." WON 6/1
"Hydraenga offers a bit of each-way value at 15/2; she boasts top-class form up to 10f and her pedigree suggests 1m 4f will bring about further improvement." WON 4/1
"KEW GARDENS has solid Group race form and can capture this listed event; as a son of Frankel (aligned with stamina on the dam’s side) he should relish the extra two furlongs and looks a good thing. 2 points win @ 7/4" WON 13/8
"WITHHOLD has been laid out for the race...but I think he could be chucked in here off of 87. After finishing second to Blakeney Point (now rated 23lbs higher) he then beat London Prize giving it 8lbs and that too is now 23lbs higher (and has places claims here) 2nd 16/1. Given a prep for this over and inadequate 12f - Withhold should be spot on for this and has to be a knocking each-way punt at 12/1" WON 5/1
"The winner will certainly need to stay this 10f in soft with a stiff finish and that should benefit Austrian School being a half-brother to NH Chase winner Tiger Roll. The selection didn’t look at home on testing ground last time out and should go close" WON 100/30
"Motown Mick has a really progressive profile and the form of his previous races is solid. A 5lb rise for his win last time out isn’t harsh" WON 7/1
"Raheen House carries a Group 3 penalty for this listed event it doesn't leave him exposed on ratings and he will find this easier than the St Leger. He can be backed at 5/1" WON 9/2
"I've missed bigger prices on Shady McCoy in the opener but the gelding can still be backed at 5/1.Back on a winning mark, he's run over C/D in the Gigaset International entitles him to go close with a step down in class here" WON 13/2
"Rastrelli really caught the eye as a Nursery type when winning at Brighton and can continue his improvement by upholding Appleby's record in the race." WON 7/2
"Decent racing in Ireland on Sunday and I expect to have some advice for Naas. Already among the early prices I think Ellthea is a bit of value at 20/1" WON 10/1
"Aclaim ... his run in the Diamond Jubilee when, despite a troubled passage he finished just behind some of the top sprinters over an inadequate 6f, is the outstanding piece of form on offer. Ignore his Goodwood run as the race was a farce and since then he was just touched off in a Group 1." WON 3/1
(16/1) could be a bit of each-way value against some exposed rivals..." WON 11/1
"Graphite Storm - slightly unlucky when runner-up at Newbury, he's only been raised 2lbs for that. Off the back of that he has a great chance of going one better today in an arguably weaker race. It wouldn't take much easing in the market to suggest getting involved (c 9/4 - 5/2)." WON 9/4
"The Wagon Wheel had excuses for the last two runs and if you forgive those two efforts has a live e/w chance at a big price.." 3rd 22/1
"Oh It’s Saucepot
will take a good deal of beating, she's improving with racing and can defy a 6lbs increase.” WON 3/1
"Hyde Park has ability but is clearly quirky and temperamental but with the drop in grade he's worth a punt at 12/1" WON 8/1
"I am really keen on the each-way chance of Secret Advisor at 11/1; throw out his run last time out on testing ground at Goodwood, his penultimate start was second to Stradivarius and returning to 1m 6f here he has a live chance at a decent price." WON 5/1
"I'm all over Mustashry, beaten 1/2 length by Firmament at the corresponding meeting, he's proven on the course. Last time out he won a decent race at Chelmsford beating Masham Star and leaving the impression that a step-up would bring further improvement. A must bet at 3/1" WON 5/2
Fidaawy - advised at 14/1 (R4) - WON 11/1
Flaming Spear - WON 10/1
Important Mission - WON 7/1
Mazyoun - WON 100/30 (adv 9/2)
Selections are proofed to RACING INDEX not all Twitter bets are recorded and each-way bets are rarely proofed as each-way. Note the results are reported at SP/BSP not at the prices advised.