Welcome to Cheekpieces
I've spent the last ten years realising a second income from betting on horse races which has resulted in several bookmakers either closing or placing restrictions on my account and has allowed me to work only part-time.
I read somewhere that the strike-rate of favourites is around one in three. If you are betting to level a stake and have a strike rate of 33% you need an average price of winners to be 2/1 just to break even! I have no statistics on the overall price of favourites and I have no intention of finding out but I doubt it is above 2/1. I tend to have a lower strike rate - typically 25% winners - but with averages prices in excess of 7/2.
Strike rate is inevitably related to prices, backing horses that are odds-on is likely to provide a strike rate of at least 50% (not enough for level stakes profit). As I'm operating outside the favourites range I expect a lower strike rate, longer losing runs but a better return on investment (ROI). For the 2014 turf flat season I averaged around 25% winners at 9/2, in 2015 I consciously targetted bigger prices and lower stakes which resulted in a drop to 19.5% winners but with an average price of over 7/1 - a better profit %. The averages for losers was 11/1 and 14/1 respectively and the longest losing run was 19 consecutive losers. That type of losing run really does test your self-belief!
So...if it's medium term profit you're looking for or even just to stop losing...follow Cheekpieces; if you want regular winners at < 2/1 then, with the greatest of respect, I would suggest you look elsewhere.
I do not usually bet each-way I leave it up to the individual to decide. Some punters like the security and fewer losing runs. However, the old adage that a 5/1 place is an evens winner is a myth. If you've bet each-way and the horse only places you have staked 2 points to win 1 that is a 2/1 ON winner. There are occasions when I might bet this way [see "Ducks In A Row" tab]
That should be enough info for you to decide, you may not want to know about statistics and markets but for the more curious (or sceptical) punter read on ... [see "Ducks In A Row" tab]
n.b. I have been proofing my selections to Racing Index since Cheltenham 2017 but please note that their records are for returns at SP/BSP* - I never advocate betting at SP. I'm only advising bets that I think have been over-priced. So their profit % do not reflect precisely what I've advised. Also, when I first started proofing I didn't realise an each-way selection was 1 point each-way so, for example, an each-way punt in the Grand National at 50/1 was shown as twice the stake as a selection at 7/2. I have since improved this to reflect 'advised stakes'.
You cannot post ante-post advice or include concessions on extra places. If I advise each-way bets to members I tend to proof them as win only, especially if I expect the SP to be significantly lower than the price I advise taking.
A good example of what I consider to be value is: in 2015 the BHA introduced the Jump racing 'Triple Crown' bonus of the Betfair Chase, King George & Cheltenham Gold Cup. Bookmakers were quick to offer prices and while most were quoting around 16/1 named horses such as Don Cossack or Vautour, Stan James went 40/1 "any horse" this was an obvious error by the layers and I was quick to take advantage; how could the price possibly be 16/1 for a specific horse or 40/1 any horse (including Don Cossack etc)? [Cue Card's fall at Cheltenham meant I did not collect off of Stan James but I had a 'green book' by then!]
* Betfair SP
"My Fantasea looks to have a great chance of going one better than his 2nd last time out. Not the first horse to improve from a switch to Ian Williams, he can benefit from a slight drop in grade and a better draw. (3/1 generally). " WON 11/10
"I can’t resist having a punt on the opener at Carlisle with Ballinslea Bridge who won his last race impressively and the form has been franked and is worth a bet at 11/4 (generally)." WON 13/8
"Delire D’Esrtruval is a bit of value against the short price fav. An impressive winner on his penultimate start, he disappointed next time out when stepped up in trip. The drop back to a stiff 2m will suit (7/4)" WON 11/8
"The progressive Samphire Coast looks well capable of defyinga 5lb riseand is worth an interest @ 11/4 (20p R4)"
"Smooth Stepper is not the most consistent proposition either but he does have a good course record and this dour stayer is on a winning mark... he represents a bit of value and is worth a bet at 100/30" WON 2/1
"My idea of a value bet is Attention Please looked unlucky when falling last time out and the form of that race has been franked since. Available at 5/1 Stan James and 9/2 elsewhere, I suggest a bet"
"Topofthegame went into a few notebooks at Kempton and should be backed at 5/1" WON 11/2
"Ballydine looks absolutely thrown in here off of 131 based on his hurdles form (2nd to Barters Hill) the step-up in trip for the first time over fences will help and he should be backed at 6/1" WON 4/1
"Hurricane Rita won't be first (or last) to get bogged down in the Ffos Lay 'clay' and she's worth another chance...Power's have gone 2/1 (9/4 elsewhere) and I would want bigger than that"
WON 7/2 (adv 100/30)
"I can't resist an each-way play @ 50/1 on Magnus Maximus. Recent form shows no encouragement but he's slipped to a mark that he won a class 2 at Ascot and at that price he's worth taking a chance on." 2nd 16/1
"I'm keen to take an each-way chance with Megabucks making his chasing debut under rules. This winning pointer has wasted little time over the smaller obstacles before embarking on a chasing career...and at 10/1 looks a decent each-way bet.
" 2nd 3/1 fav
"Speredek thrives on heavy ground and ran an encouraging race over hurdles in a competitive race last time out... as a course winner he ticks all the boxes.
1 point win @ 9/4" WON 10/11
"Sustained support for Snaffled has resulted in Magic Pulse being widely available at 9/4 and I can't resist having a piece of that. The filly ran an eye-catching race over CD last week going down by only a short head, up 2lbs but dropping in grade she looks to have a decent chance." WON 2/1
"I was expecting Pulsating her to be shorter than 2/1. Impressive over C/D two starts ago she has excuses for last time out defeat and can resume winning ways in this grade." WON 2/1
"The 2m in a hot race would have been sharp enough for Knockgraffon last time out and he can benefit from a step back up in trip.
1 point win at 4/1" WON 7/2
"Tikkanbar each-way at 11/2" WON 3/1
"Merie Devie is being backed as if defeat is out of the question but Duca De Thaix is a bit of value at 11/2 to turn the tables...he ran a great race after such a lengthy lay-off and may be under-estimated. 1 point win @ 11/2" WON 4/1
"Petticoat Tails had a valid excuse for her disappointing effort first time out , prior to that her bumper form is outstanding, as long as she hurdles well she can take this on the way to better things; 2 points win @ 2/1" WON 13/8
"Really keen on the chances of Kildisart (2nd 3/1 < 9/2) on his handicap debut and I expect him to be well supported on the day. Golan Fortune is worth a saver." WON 7/2 < 9/1
"Candesta may be worth taking a chance with at a decent price with the gelding now 9lbs lower than his last victory a year ago. His last run is better than the bare form as he raced against a track bias and his run can be marked up." WON 5/1 (adv 7/1)
"Kings Odyssey looks to have been targetted at this race after falling in last year's renewal and he carries 7lb less this time around. He should be spot-on for this after a debut over a trip too short for him. (3rd 9/1)...I suggest a two-pronged attack on the race with Guitar Pete. His effort in the BV Gold Cup can be excused as he was virtually brought-down. Prior to that he beat Splash Of Ginge and Sametegal impressively at Wetherby and should go well again" WON 9/1
"Cap Du Nord has already been supported and is now favourite. The lightly raced gelding has been aimed at this race for a while (a race won by the yard’s Limited Reserve last year) he starts handicap life off of 100...1 point win" WON 9/2
"Maria’s Benefit (Ludlow 1:30) is another who can follow-up off of a revised mark, she won impressively the last day and wasn’t given enough credit. 1 point win @ 9/4"
"No account bet but I suggest a small stakes interest in Mala Beach at 9/1...the selection ran an eye-catching comeback at Galway after a long absence and should go well here with ideal conditions."
"Delusionofgrandeur...loves the track and has a good opportunity here after some steady improvement this season. 1 point win @ 13/8 " WON 6/4
"Thomas Campbell is a good thing and must be backed (@ 7/4). Absolutely hosed in the last day and with James Bowen taking over he's effectively only 3lbs higher with the step-up in trip likely to bring further improvement"
"Houblon Des Obeaux looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to return to winning ways. He gets in here over a stone less than when a good second to Many Clouds in the Hennessey two years ago when conceding weight to the winner... he could be thrown in here and is worth backing @ 3/1". WON 5/2
"Louis Vac Pouch is really progressive and ran a cracking seasonal debut to finish so close to the principles in a race that couldn’t have worked out better and if he improves again for the step-up in trip he looks a good thing here. 1 point win @ 3/1" WON 5/2
"On A Promise won comfortably last week and goes again here without a penalty for that win. Although I rarely put-up NH horses at under 2/1 I do think 11/8 is worth taking here."
"Red Rising is a short-priced fav for the staying handicap Hurdle but I'm keen to take him on on with Steely Addition. The Hobbs' gelding has shown steady progression to-date and looks likely to continue to improve. After falling on his seasonal reappearance when looking in need of the run, he returned to win with a bit in hand at Wincanton and looks capable of going in again under a penalty here." WON 4/1
"Cue Card & Coneygree... at 8/11 the pair I would prefer to take them on with Bristol De Mai each-way at 9/1. The selection looked like a live Gold Cup outsider last season and with the yard in flying form he looks the value" WON 6/1
"One runner who doesn't appear to be ground dependant is Elgin who had a decent novice season and has already had a seasonal debut to ensure he is fit enough today. Either of the Henderson horses could be thrown in here but I don't think anyone is sure which will come out on top and I do feel that the selection is a bit of value against the pair at around 7/1." WON 6/1
"Hydraenga offers a bit of each-way value at 15/2; she boasts top-class form up to 10f and her pedigree suggests 1m 4f will bring about further improvement." WON 4/1
"KEW GARDENS has solid Group race form and can capture this listed event; as a son of Frankel (aligned with stamina on the dam’s side) he should relish the extra two furlongs and looks a good thing. 2 points win @ 7/4" WON 13/8
"WITHHOLD has been laid out for the race...but I think he could be chucked in here off of 87. After finishing second to Blakeney Point (now rated 23lbs higher) he then beat London Prize giving it 8lbs and that too is now 23lbs higher (and has places claims here) 2nd 16/1. Given a prep for this over and inadequate 12f - Withhold should be spot on for this and has to be a knocking each-way punt at 12/1" WON 5/1
"The winner will certainly need to stay this 10f in soft with a stiff finish and that should benefit Austrian School being a half-brother to NH Chase winner Tiger Roll. The selection didn’t look at home on testing ground last time out and should go close" WON 100/30
"Motown Mick has a really progressive profile and the form of his previous races is solid. A 5lb rise for his win last time out isn’t harsh" WON 7/1
"Raheen House carries a Group 3 penalty for this listed event it doesn't leave him exposed on ratings and he will find this easier than the St Leger. He can be backed at 5/1" WON 9/2
"I've missed bigger prices on Shady McCoy in the opener but the gelding can still be backed at 5/1.Back on a winning mark, he's run over C/D in the Gigaset International entitles him to go close with a step down in class here" WON 13/2
"Rastrelli really caught the eye as a Nursery type when winning at Brighton and can continue his improvement by upholding Appleby's record in the race." WON 7/2
"Decent racing in Ireland on Sunday and I expect to have some advice for Naas. Already among the early prices I think Ellthea is a bit of value at 20/1" WON 10/1
"Aclaim ... his run in the Diamond Jubilee when, despite a troubled passage he finished just behind some of the top sprinters over an inadequate 6f, is the outstanding piece of form on offer. Ignore his Goodwood run as the race was a farce and since then he was just touched off in a Group 1." WON 3/1
(16/1) could be a bit of each-way value against some exposed rivals..." WON 11/1
"Graphite Storm - slightly unlucky when runner-up at Newbury, he's only been raised 2lbs for that. Off the back of that he has a great chance of going one better today in an arguably weaker race. It wouldn't take much easing in the market to suggest getting involved (c 9/4 - 5/2)." WON 9/4
"The Wagon Wheel had excuses for the last two runs and if you forgive those two efforts has a live e/w chance at a big price.." 3rd 22/1
"Oh It’s Saucepot
will take a good deal of beating, she's improving with racing and can defy a 6lbs increase.” WON 3/1
"Hyde Park has ability but is clearly quirky and temperamental but with the drop in grade he's worth a punt at 12/1" WON 8/1
"I am really keen on the each-way chance of Secret Advisor at 11/1; throw out his run last time out on testing ground at Goodwood, his penultimate start was second to Stradivarius and returning to 1m 6f here he has a live chance at a decent price." WON 5/1
"I'm all over Mustashry, beaten 1/2 length by Firmament at the corresponding meeting, he's proven on the course. Last time out he won a decent race at Chelmsford beating Masham Star and leaving the impression that a step-up would bring further improvement. A must bet at 3/1" WON 5/2
Fidaawy - advised at 14/1 (R4) - WON 11/1
Flaming Spear - WON 10/1
Important Mission - WON 7/1
Mazyoun - WON 100/30 (adv 9/2)
Selections are proofed to RACING INDEX not all Twitter bets are recorded and each-way bets are rarely proofed as each-way. Note the results are reported at SP/BSP not at the prices advised.